Value
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 3.1 |
- ▸PEG: 4.05
WILC · Why this verdict
Why G. Willi-Food International, L (WILC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WILC shows positive price momentum and is outperforming its peers, supported by rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average. Bull case | Momentum score should hold above 6.0 and the price should stay above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the outperformance is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum-driven outperformance can reverse quickly for a thinly-traded small cap once the volume surge fades. | ||
The engine finds no competitive moat for WILC, leaving margins exposed to competitive pressure despite otherwise adequate quality metrics. Quality breakdown | Quality score should hold or improve from the current 4.4 if the lack of a moat does not translate into margin erosion. | →Stable |
| CounterA commodity food distributor can still compound value through scale and distribution relationships even without a classic economic moat. | ||
WILC trades at an attractive P/E versus peers while delivering best-in-class margins, suggesting the market may be underpricing its relative quality. Peer-rank breakdown | The value peer-rank should stay above 7.0 while margin peer-standing remains best-in-class over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap peer-relative P/E can reflect justified skepticism about growth and moat rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
WILC has missed consensus EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, signaling inconsistent execution against analyst expectations. Earnings | The company should beat or meet estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters if execution has stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-cap earnings estimates are often thinly covered and noisy, so a 2-of-4 miss rate may not reflect a real deterioration in execution. | ||
WILC carries a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3x, which the engine treats as a drag on the overall score. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline from 1.3x over the next 12 months if the leverage concern is set to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA D/E of 1.3x is not unusually high for a food distributor with steady cash flows, so the penalty may overstate the actual risk. | ||
WILC shows positive price momentum and is outperforming its peers, supported by rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Momentum score should hold above 6.0 and the price should stay above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the outperformance is durable.
CounterMomentum-driven outperformance can reverse quickly for a thinly-traded small cap once the volume surge fades.
The engine finds no competitive moat for WILC, leaving margins exposed to competitive pressure despite otherwise adequate quality metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should hold or improve from the current 4.4 if the lack of a moat does not translate into margin erosion.
CounterA commodity food distributor can still compound value through scale and distribution relationships even without a classic economic moat.
WILC trades at an attractive P/E versus peers while delivering best-in-class margins, suggesting the market may be underpricing its relative quality.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The value peer-rank should stay above 7.0 while margin peer-standing remains best-in-class over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap peer-relative P/E can reflect justified skepticism about growth and moat rather than a genuine mispricing.
WILC has missed consensus EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, signaling inconsistent execution against analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters if execution has stabilized.
CounterSmall-cap earnings estimates are often thinly covered and noisy, so a 2-of-4 miss rate may not reflect a real deterioration in execution.
WILC carries a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3x, which the engine treats as a drag on the overall score.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline from 1.3x over the next 12 months if the leverage concern is set to ease.
CounterA D/E of 1.3x is not unusually high for a food distributor with steady cash flows, so the penalty may overstate the actual risk.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WILC combines positive momentum and peer-leading margins and valuation with real execution risk — two of the last four quarters missed estimates, leverage sits at 1.3x, and the business lacks a defined competitive moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 7.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Peer rank at 8.2, and Technical at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 3.6, Catalyst at 3.8, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Momentum Peer Outperformance
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.9, erasing the outperformance signal.
- P2Absent Competitive Moat Quality Gap
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.4, confirming margin erosion without a moat to defend pricing.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifThe miss streak rises to 3 consecutive quarters, up from the current 2 of the last 4 quarters.
- P4Elevated Leverage Valuation Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.8x from the current 1.3x, showing the leverage risk has been resolved.
- P5Peer Relative Value Margin Edge
Trip ifValue peer-rank score falls below 4.0 from the current 8.3, erasing the relative valuation advantage.