Value
7.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
WEAV · Why this verdict
Why Weave Communications (WEAV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Weave is a growing, free-cash-flow-positive software business whose revenue has risen every quarter, but the price is already above the analyst target and momentum is weakening, so the stance is to hold rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Weave is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 15% and an FCF yield of 6.6%, so the business funds itself. Quality breakdown | FCF margin stays at or above 15% while GAAP operating margin moves toward breakeven. | →Stable |
| CounterGAAP returns on equity and operating margin score 0, so FCF may be flattered by stock-based compensation and working-capital timing. | ||
Quarterly revenue has risen every quarter for 3 years, reaching $67.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $58.5M a year earlier, a growth rate of about 15%. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue reaches the $69M estimate for the next quarter and keeps growing double digits YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is slowing in percentage terms and the growth score of 8.2 leans on earnings growth off a tiny base, not on revenue acceleration. | ||
The price of $7.40 is already above the analyst target of $6.29 (the distance to target is -15.0%, so the price is 15.0% above it), leaving no upside to consensus. Warnings | Analyst targets are revised up toward the price, or the price holds near $7.40 through earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets often trail the price during a re-rating, and the stock sits within 3.9% of its 52-week high with the price above its 200-day average. | ||
Earnings have been in line rather than strong beats (0 beats, 1 miss in 4 quarters, EPS of $0.03-$0.04), and momentum at 4.0 is soft with falling OBV signalling volume distribution. Momentum breakdown | EPS comes in at or above estimates in the next 2 reports and OBV turns up. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPer-share amounts are tiny, so small differences produce large percentage surprises (average surprise 26.6%), and the stock still trades above its 200-day average. | ||
Implied volatility of 187% ahead of earnings in 12 days makes the stock prone to a large move in either direction. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility falls well below 100% after the November report without a price drop. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh implied volatility around a small-cap report is common and an upside surprise on growth could drive a sharp rally. | ||
Weave is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 15% and an FCF yield of 6.6%, so the business funds itself.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin stays at or above 15% while GAAP operating margin moves toward breakeven.
CounterGAAP returns on equity and operating margin score 0, so FCF may be flattered by stock-based compensation and working-capital timing.
Quarterly revenue has risen every quarter for 3 years, reaching $67.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $58.5M a year earlier, a growth rate of about 15%.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the $69M estimate for the next quarter and keeps growing double digits YoY.
CounterGrowth is slowing in percentage terms and the growth score of 8.2 leans on earnings growth off a tiny base, not on revenue acceleration.
The price of $7.40 is already above the analyst target of $6.29 (the distance to target is -15.0%, so the price is 15.0% above it), leaving no upside to consensus.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised up toward the price, or the price holds near $7.40 through earnings.
CounterTargets often trail the price during a re-rating, and the stock sits within 3.9% of its 52-week high with the price above its 200-day average.
Earnings have been in line rather than strong beats (0 beats, 1 miss in 4 quarters, EPS of $0.03-$0.04), and momentum at 4.0 is soft with falling OBV signalling volume distribution.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS comes in at or above estimates in the next 2 reports and OBV turns up.
CounterPer-share amounts are tiny, so small differences produce large percentage surprises (average surprise 26.6%), and the stock still trades above its 200-day average.
Implied volatility of 187% ahead of earnings in 12 days makes the stock prone to a large move in either direction.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility falls well below 100% after the November report without a price drop.
CounterHigh implied volatility around a small-cap report is common and an upside surprise on growth could drive a sharp rally.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 6.6%)
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸High IV: 203%
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-15.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.68>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.2; weakest: Peer rank at 4.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 7.7, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Momentum at 4.0, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifYoY quarterly revenue growth falls below 10% from about 15%.
- P2Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 8% from the current 15%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $7.36, the stop level, more than 0.5% under $7.40.
- P4Modest Earnings Quality And Momentum
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Extreme Implied Volatility
Trip ifPrice drops to $6.29, the analyst target, a decline of more than 15% from $7.40.