Value
8.9/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
- ▸Attractively valued
WDI · Why this verdict
Why WDI (WDI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WDI is an asset-management name with a 15.6% dividend and a cheap earnings multiple, but very weak quality scores, a confirmed downtrend and almost no upside to resistance make it a position to exit rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores only 0.9 against a 4.0 minimum, with a 0/9 Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat, so the fundamentals do not support holding. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above 4.0 and the Piotroski F-Score improves from 0/9 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak scores may reflect thin reported data for a fund-like vehicle (low confidence 0.71) rather than real business deterioration. | ||
The price is below the 200-day moving average with a slope of -1.0% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, even as the price sits at $11.42. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the slope turns positive within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising OBV shows volume accumulation and MACD is improving, which suggests the downtrend may be bottoming. | ||
The stated dividend of 15.6% is the main return driver, and its safety score is only 5.5 out of 10. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is paid at the current level through the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 15.6% yield on a weak-quality business is more likely a signal of expected cuts than a durable payout. | ||
Upside to the resistance-based take-profit of $11.59 is only 1.5% against 2.1% downside, so the reward-to-risk is effectively zero at the current price. Upside pct | Price breaks above resistance at $11.59 and opens a new upside range. | →Stable |
| CounterSupport and Bollinger readings are strong (technical score 8.0), so a breakout from a tight range could be sharp. | ||
Insiders sold about $300,577 against $59,415 bought in 90 days (4 sells vs 1 buy), a bearish net position of -$241,162. Insider | Insider selling fades and net purchases turn positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is only 0.041% of market cap, which is modest and could be routine diversification. | ||
Quality scores only 0.9 against a 4.0 minimum, with a 0/9 Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat, so the fundamentals do not support holding.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 and the Piotroski F-Score improves from 0/9 over 12 months.
CounterWeak scores may reflect thin reported data for a fund-like vehicle (low confidence 0.71) rather than real business deterioration.
The price is below the 200-day moving average with a slope of -1.0% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, even as the price sits at $11.42.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the slope turns positive within 12 months.
CounterRising OBV shows volume accumulation and MACD is improving, which suggests the downtrend may be bottoming.
The stated dividend of 15.6% is the main return driver, and its safety score is only 5.5 out of 10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is paid at the current level through the next 4 quarters.
CounterA 15.6% yield on a weak-quality business is more likely a signal of expected cuts than a durable payout.
Upside to the resistance-based take-profit of $11.59 is only 1.5% against 2.1% downside, so the reward-to-risk is effectively zero at the current price.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price breaks above resistance at $11.59 and opens a new upside range.
CounterSupport and Bollinger readings are strong (technical score 8.0), so a breakout from a tight range could be sharp.
Insiders sold about $300,577 against $59,415 bought in 90 days (4 sells vs 1 buy), a bearish net position of -$241,162.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades and net purchases turn positive.
CounterThe selling is only 0.041% of market cap, which is modest and could be routine diversification.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.2 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $241,162 (0.040% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.8/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.7 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 15.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Risk (lower is worse) at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.8, Value at 8.9, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Insider at 4.2, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Very Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 for 2 consecutive quarterly updates.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below $11.18, the stop level, which is more than 2.1% under $11.42.
- P3High Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 10% from the current 15.6% on a payout cut.
- P4Limited Upside To Resistance
Trip ifReward-to-risk stays below 1.0 for 2 consecutive months.
- P5Net Insider Selling
Trip ifNet 90-day insider selling exceeds $500,000.