Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.86
- ▸Attractively valued
WCCB · Why this verdict
Why WEST COAST COMMUNITY BANCORP (WCCB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
West Coast Community Bancorp is a cheaply valued regional bank with a steady earnings beat record, but the price is above the analyst target and momentum is weak, so the case is to hold rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock at $60.30 is above the $56.95 analyst target, so upside is -5.6% and the target has been reached. Estimated upside | Limited upside should remain until analysts raise targets or earnings growth accelerates. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price in regional banks, and three beats in four quarters could drive upward revisions. | ||
West Coast beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 6.4%. Last 4 quarters | Beats should continue over the next four quarters as the bank holds margins. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe one miss in October 2025 came in a quarter with an estimate of 1.22, so the margin for error is thin. | ||
The forward P/E is 10.6x with a PEG of 0.81, which the engine rates as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The valuation should stay low relative to earnings growth, supporting the price. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price is already above the analyst target, which implies much of the valuation discount has closed. | ||
The growth notes flag declining revenue of 2%, and the growth score is only 3.2. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months to justify the current price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterQuarterly revenue figures are provisional and show the June 2026 quarter slightly above a year earlier, so the decline may be overstated. | ||
Momentum scores 3.4, below the 4.5 bar, with falling on-balance volume even though the price is within 3.2% of its 52-week high. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above 4.5 before the engine would support adding to the position. | →Stable |
| CounterA price close to the 52-week high with a technical score of 7.3 suggests the trend itself remains intact. | ||
The stock at $60.30 is above the $56.95 analyst target, so upside is -5.6% and the target has been reached.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Limited upside should remain until analysts raise targets or earnings growth accelerates.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price in regional banks, and three beats in four quarters could drive upward revisions.
West Coast beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 6.4%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Beats should continue over the next four quarters as the bank holds margins.
CounterThe one miss in October 2025 came in a quarter with an estimate of 1.22, so the margin for error is thin.
The forward P/E is 10.6x with a PEG of 0.81, which the engine rates as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation should stay low relative to earnings growth, supporting the price.
CounterThe price is already above the analyst target, which implies much of the valuation discount has closed.
The growth notes flag declining revenue of 2%, and the growth score is only 3.2.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months to justify the current price.
CounterQuarterly revenue figures are provisional and show the June 2026 quarter slightly above a year earlier, so the decline may be overstated.
Momentum scores 3.4, below the 4.5 bar, with falling on-balance volume even though the price is within 3.2% of its 52-week high.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 before the engine would support adding to the position.
CounterA price close to the 52-week high with a technical score of 7.3 suggests the trend itself remains intact.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.5/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.71
Upside
-10.1%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.5; weakest: Growth at 2.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.5, Value at 8.2, and Catalyst at 8.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.3, Technical at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $65 from the current $56.95.
- P2Steady Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from the current 10.6x.
- P4Soft Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -5% year over year from the current -2%.
- P5Weak Momentum Near Highs
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 5.5 from the current 3.4.