Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 5.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.48
WCC · Why this verdict
Why WESCO International (WCC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WESCO International is an industry growth leader with an 8.0 growth score and beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but quality remains just below the investable floor at 3.7, free cash flow is only 26% of net income, and the stock trades above analyst price targets at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WESCO ranks as the top growth performer in the industrial distribution industry peer group, with a peer growth rank score indicating leadership even as earnings growth is expected to be strong; this growth leadership commands attention in a distribution sector that benefits from industrial cycle upswings. Peer-rank breakdown | WESCO maintains its top-quartile position in industry revenue growth for at least 2 more quarters and EPS growth score remains above 7.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIndustrial distributors often show impressive growth during capex cycles that can reverse sharply; WESCO's beta of 1.54 indicates it is cyclically sensitive and growth leadership may be a lagging indicator of peak cycle conditions. | ||
WESCO's quality score of 3.7 falls just below the 4.0 investable threshold, and free cash flow represents only 26% of net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company's reported earnings significantly overstate the cash it actually generates. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 and free cash flow improves to at least 50% of net income within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDistribution businesses often carry high working capital requirements that temporarily suppress FCF relative to net income; the strong Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 and current ratio of 7.4 suggest the balance sheet is not under stress. | ||
WESCO has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a most recent quarter delivering an 18.9% positive surprise, indicating strong operational execution even as the stock trades above analyst price targets. Earnings | Beat streak continues with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters delivering positive EPS surprises above 2%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe single miss was a -12.6% surprise just two quarters ago, suggesting WESCO can swing from beats to significant misses, which limits confidence in the beat streak as a reliable predictor. | ||
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.79 and the stock trading above its analyst price target of $369.80, there is no consensus upside to the current price of $347.79, meaning buyers at current prices must rely on target upgrades rather than existing analyst consensus. Targets | Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $380 within 12 months as earnings momentum justifies higher targets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLight analyst coverage noted in the data means that the existing targets may significantly lag the actual fundamental case; coverage initiations could immediately reveal a larger analyst consensus upside. | ||
WESCO ranks as the top growth performer in the industrial distribution industry peer group, with a peer growth rank score indicating leadership even as earnings growth is expected to be strong; this growth leadership commands attention in a distribution sector that benefits from industrial cycle upswings.
↓DeterioratingPeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- WESCO maintains its top-quartile position in industry revenue growth for at least 2 more quarters and EPS growth score remains above 7.0.
CounterIndustrial distributors often show impressive growth during capex cycles that can reverse sharply; WESCO's beta of 1.54 indicates it is cyclically sensitive and growth leadership may be a lagging indicator of peak cycle conditions.
WESCO's quality score of 3.7 falls just below the 4.0 investable threshold, and free cash flow represents only 26% of net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company's reported earnings significantly overstate the cash it actually generates.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 and free cash flow improves to at least 50% of net income within 12 months.
CounterDistribution businesses often carry high working capital requirements that temporarily suppress FCF relative to net income; the strong Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 and current ratio of 7.4 suggest the balance sheet is not under stress.
WESCO has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a most recent quarter delivering an 18.9% positive surprise, indicating strong operational execution even as the stock trades above analyst price targets.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak continues with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters delivering positive EPS surprises above 2%.
CounterThe single miss was a -12.6% surprise just two quarters ago, suggesting WESCO can swing from beats to significant misses, which limits confidence in the beat streak as a reliable predictor.
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.79 and the stock trading above its analyst price target of $369.80, there is no consensus upside to the current price of $347.79, meaning buyers at current prices must rely on target upgrades rather than existing analyst consensus.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $380 within 12 months as earnings momentum justifies higher targets.
CounterLight analyst coverage noted in the data means that the existing targets may significantly lag the actual fundamental case; coverage initiations could immediately reveal a larger analyst consensus upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 2.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 25% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 4.1 |
Momentum
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $995,273 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.22
Upside
-3.3%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.55>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.22.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.8, Sentiment at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Quality at 3.8, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leader Position
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year in 2 or more of the next 4 quarters, indicating the growth leadership position is fading.
- P2Quality Below Floor Fcf Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow remains below 30% of net income for 2 or more consecutive annual periods with no improvement.
- P3Earnings Track Record 3 Of 4 Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifPrice rises above $400, more than 15% above the current $347.79, without analyst targets being revised above $420.