Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.60
VRSK · Why this verdict
Why Verisk Analytics (VRSK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Verisk Analytics is a best-in-class data analytics franchise for U.S. property and casualty insurers, with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, operating margins of 29%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but the stock's near-term appeal is constrained by thin 10% upside to analyst targets, a confirmed downtrend, and heavy customer concentration in a single end market.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Verisk generates operating margins of 29% — best in class among consulting and data analytics peers — supported by a quality score of 8.0, strong return on assets, and gross margins in the top 10% of the universe. Quality breakdown | Operating margins should remain above 27% over the next 12 months, maintaining the premium margin profile that justifies the higher-than-sector valuation multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterThin revenue growth of approximately 4% limits the ability to expand margins further, and the business relies on a single customer segment — U.S. property and casualty insurers representing 70% of revenue — that could face pricing pressure in a soft insurance cycle. | ||
Over 70% of revenue comes from U.S. property and casualty primary insurers, which is flagged as a high-concentration risk; however, this concentration also reflects deep product integration and high switching costs that make relationships durable. Bear case | Revenue from the property and casualty insurance segment should grow at least 3% annually, in line with the broader insurance sector, over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf the U.S. P&C insurance market enters a hard underwriting cycle that reduces insurer premiums and IT budgets, Verisk has no diversified revenue base to absorb the impact. | ||
Verisk has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 6.2% and consistent beats ranging from 0.96% to 12.92%, demonstrating disciplined financial guidance and reliable execution. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to at least 6 consecutive quarters, with earnings per share continuing to grow and surprise positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 6.2% average beat may reflect consistently conservative guidance rather than fundamental outperformance, and any reset of guidance expectations could end the streak without underlying business deterioration. | ||
Despite a recovery setup with improving MACD and RSI at 64, the stock's 200-day moving average is declining at -6.8% over 30 days, and the death cross condition has been flagged — creating a technical headwind that delayed the entry case despite strong fundamentals. Gates warning | The 200-day moving average slope should flatten and turn positive within 6 months, and the stock should hold above $175, roughly 3% below the current $180, confirming the recovery setup is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality and momentum exemption that waived the death cross gate does not eliminate the underlying price trend; if the stock breaks below $168 support, the recovery thesis fails. | ||
Verisk generates operating margins of 29% — best in class among consulting and data analytics peers — supported by a quality score of 8.0, strong return on assets, and gross margins in the top 10% of the universe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins should remain above 27% over the next 12 months, maintaining the premium margin profile that justifies the higher-than-sector valuation multiple.
CounterThin revenue growth of approximately 4% limits the ability to expand margins further, and the business relies on a single customer segment — U.S. property and casualty insurers representing 70% of revenue — that could face pricing pressure in a soft insurance cycle.
Over 70% of revenue comes from U.S. property and casualty primary insurers, which is flagged as a high-concentration risk; however, this concentration also reflects deep product integration and high switching costs that make relationships durable.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from the property and casualty insurance segment should grow at least 3% annually, in line with the broader insurance sector, over the next 12 months.
CounterIf the U.S. P&C insurance market enters a hard underwriting cycle that reduces insurer premiums and IT budgets, Verisk has no diversified revenue base to absorb the impact.
Verisk has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 6.2% and consistent beats ranging from 0.96% to 12.92%, demonstrating disciplined financial guidance and reliable execution.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to at least 6 consecutive quarters, with earnings per share continuing to grow and surprise positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterA 6.2% average beat may reflect consistently conservative guidance rather than fundamental outperformance, and any reset of guidance expectations could end the streak without underlying business deterioration.
Despite a recovery setup with improving MACD and RSI at 64, the stock's 200-day moving average is declining at -6.8% over 30 days, and the death cross condition has been flagged — creating a technical headwind that delayed the entry case despite strong fundamentals.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope should flatten and turn positive within 6 months, and the stock should hold above $175, roughly 3% below the current $180, confirming the recovery setup is intact.
CounterThe quality and momentum exemption that waived the death cross gate does not eliminate the underlying price trend; if the stock breaks below $168 support, the recovery thesis fails.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 8.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 1.3 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,203,266 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $140
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.8>=7.5+momentum=7.5>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.46
Upside
+6.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.46 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Momentum at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Insider at 3.6, and Technical at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Best In Class Margin Profile
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 25%, more than 4 percentage points below the current 29% level, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Customer Concentration Single Sector
Trip ifRevenue growth from the P&C insurance segment declines to below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Downtrend Momentum Headwind
Trip ifStock price falls below $168, more than 7% below the current $180.46, and the 200-day moving average slope remains negative after 90 days.