Value
5.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.2 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.75
VPG · Why this verdict
Why Vishay Precision Group (VPG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vishay Precision Group has excellent cash conversion, growing revenue and a large gap to the analyst target after a 65% drawdown, but repeated earnings misses, thin margins and an expensive forward multiple weigh on it.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has recovered, with quarterly revenue rising from $71.7M to $84.4M over the last four reported quarters before $83.9M last quarter. Earnings | Quarterly revenue holds near the $86.5M next-quarter estimate over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth is not flowing to profit, with operating margin and net margin scoring 0.2 and 0.6 out of 10. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 164% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, despite thin margins. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7/9 or better over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion on very thin net income can come from working-capital release that is not repeatable. | ||
EPS missed estimates in two consecutive reports, by about 66% in February and 79% in August 2026, with EPS at only $0.04 last quarter. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus at the November 4 report and in the quarters that follow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEPS estimates are small in absolute terms, so percentage misses overstate the shortfall, and revenue has stayed near $84M per quarter. | ||
Price is deeply oversold, with RSI near 15 and a 65% drawdown from the 52-week high, while the 200-day average is still rising 6.4% per 30 days and on-balance volume is rising. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn oversold reading with 101% implied volatility and a put/call ratio of 3.50 can signal continued selling, and a falling price may not stop at support. | ||
The $79.33 analyst target is about 49% above the $53.25 price, but the forward P/E of 29.7x and PEG of 1.75 are not cheap. Valuation breakdown | Earnings recover enough to bring the forward P/E below 20x while price moves toward the analyst target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly about 3 analysts cover the stock, so the target is dampened, and a 29.7x forward multiple on recently missed earnings leaves little valuation cushion. | ||
Revenue has recovered, with quarterly revenue rising from $71.7M to $84.4M over the last four reported quarters before $83.9M last quarter.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds near the $86.5M next-quarter estimate over 12 months.
CounterRevenue growth is not flowing to profit, with operating margin and net margin scoring 0.2 and 0.6 out of 10.
Cash conversion is excellent at 164% of net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, despite thin margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7/9 or better over 12 months.
CounterHigh cash conversion on very thin net income can come from working-capital release that is not repeatable.
EPS missed estimates in two consecutive reports, by about 66% in February and 79% in August 2026, with EPS at only $0.04 last quarter.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus at the November 4 report and in the quarters that follow.
CounterEPS estimates are small in absolute terms, so percentage misses overstate the shortfall, and revenue has stayed near $84M per quarter.
Price is deeply oversold, with RSI near 15 and a 65% drawdown from the 52-week high, while the 200-day average is still rising 6.4% per 30 days and on-balance volume is rising.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterAn oversold reading with 101% implied volatility and a put/call ratio of 3.50 can signal continued selling, and a falling price may not stop at support.
The $79.33 analyst target is about 49% above the $53.25 price, but the forward P/E of 29.7x and PEG of 1.75 are not cheap.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings recover enough to bring the forward P/E below 20x while price moves toward the analyst target.
CounterOnly about 3 analysts cover the stock, so the target is dampened, and a 29.7x forward multiple on recently missed earnings leaves little valuation cushion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 0.2 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 164% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.31
- ▸High IV: 98%
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.24
Upside
+32.2%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -60% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Growth at 5.4, and Value at 5.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Momentum at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 164%.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the misses to 4.
- P3Revenue Recovery
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $75M from the latest $83.9M.
- P4Oversold After Deep Drawdown
Trip ifShare price drops to below the $49.82 support level.
- P5Analyst Target Vs Expensive Multiple
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $60 from the current $79.33.