Value
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.5 |
| PEG | 1.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 68.0x
- ▸PEG: 6.75
VPG · Why this verdict
Why Vishay Precision Group (VPG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
VPG shows excellent cash conversion at 153% FCF/NI and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strong balance-sheet and earnings-quality fundamentals. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should remain at 8 or better over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect Piotroski score is a backward-looking snapshot and can mask forward risk, especially when paired with a quality peer rank of just 0.59, the weakest quality-relative-to-peers reading in the dataset. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.25, with the analyst target already reached (-33.8% modeled upside) and a forward P/E of 67.2x flagged as expensive. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry ratio should improve toward positive territory (above 0) as either price corrects or forward estimates catch up, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 67.2x forward P/E can be justified if VPG's strong Piotroski score and growth (revenue growth component 6.9) continue to compound, expanding the addressable earnings base faster than the multiple implies. | ||
The engine flags an uptrend pullback (RSI 39) as a buy opportunity, with rising on-balance volume and price still above the 200-day moving average, giving a momentum score of 5.8 that clears the 5.5 threshold. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover from the 39 pullback level without price breaking below the 200-day moving average over the coming months. | →Stable |
| CounterA pullback in an expensive, no-edge-classified stock can just as easily extend into a deeper correction rather than resolve as a buyable dip. | ||
Short interest is elevated at 11%, cited directly as a key risk, alongside a rich valuation and below-average business quality relative to peers (quality peer rank of 0.59). Key risks | Short interest should decline from 11% toward single digits over the next 12 months if the bear thesis around valuation and quality fails to play out. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a genuine buy-the-dip momentum signal can set up a short squeeze that pushes price higher regardless of the underlying valuation debate. | ||
Implied volatility is elevated at 101%, per the risk-dimension notes, with a put/call ratio of 0.61 heading into an earnings report 31 days out - the options market is pricing meaningful uncertainty. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility should compress toward more normal levels (below 60%) after the August 4, 2026 earnings event resolves the uncertainty, absent a surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated IV heading into earnings is common for small-cap industrials and does not by itself predict the direction of the eventual earnings reaction. | ||
VPG shows excellent cash conversion at 153% FCF/NI and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strong balance-sheet and earnings-quality fundamentals.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should remain at 8 or better over the next 12 months.
CounterA perfect Piotroski score is a backward-looking snapshot and can mask forward risk, especially when paired with a quality peer rank of just 0.59, the weakest quality-relative-to-peers reading in the dataset.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.25, with the analyst target already reached (-33.8% modeled upside) and a forward P/E of 67.2x flagged as expensive.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should improve toward positive territory (above 0) as either price corrects or forward estimates catch up, over the next 12 months.
CounterA 67.2x forward P/E can be justified if VPG's strong Piotroski score and growth (revenue growth component 6.9) continue to compound, expanding the addressable earnings base faster than the multiple implies.
The engine flags an uptrend pullback (RSI 39) as a buy opportunity, with rising on-balance volume and price still above the 200-day moving average, giving a momentum score of 5.8 that clears the 5.5 threshold.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover from the 39 pullback level without price breaking below the 200-day moving average over the coming months.
CounterA pullback in an expensive, no-edge-classified stock can just as easily extend into a deeper correction rather than resolve as a buyable dip.
Short interest is elevated at 11%, cited directly as a key risk, alongside a rich valuation and below-average business quality relative to peers (quality peer rank of 0.59).
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline from 11% toward single digits over the next 12 months if the bear thesis around valuation and quality fails to play out.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a genuine buy-the-dip momentum signal can set up a short squeeze that pushes price higher regardless of the underlying valuation debate.
Implied volatility is elevated at 101%, per the risk-dimension notes, with a put/call ratio of 0.61 heading into an earnings report 31 days out - the options market is pricing meaningful uncertainty.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should compress toward more normal levels (below 60%) after the August 4, 2026 earnings event resolves the uncertainty, absent a surprise.
CounterElevated IV heading into earnings is common for small-cap industrials and does not by itself predict the direction of the eventual earnings reaction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vishay Precision Group combines excellent cash conversion and a perfect Piotroski score with a momentum-based pullback buy setup, but the engine's asymmetry gate has failed on a stretched valuation, elevated short interest, and high implied volatility heading into its next earnings report.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 153% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.70
Upside
-25.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.43>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.70 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Technical at 7.4, and Growth at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Value at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion Perfect Piotroski
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion falls below 100% from the current 153%, or Piotroski F-Score drops below 7.
- P2Asymmetry Gate Fails On Rich Valuation
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0 from the current -2.25, or forward P/E compresses below 40x.
- P3Uptrend Pullback Buy Opportunity
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average, or RSI falls below 30 without a rebound within 4 weeks.
- P4Elevated Short Interest Pressure
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% from the current 11%, or the stock falls more than 10% from the current $121.59.
- P5Elevated Implied Volatility Pricing In Uncertainty
Trip ifImplied volatility stays above 90% for more than 2 weeks after the August 4, 2026 earnings report.