Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸Attractively valued
VINP · Why this verdict
Why Vinci Compass Investments (VINP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vinci Compass is a high-quality, wide-moat asset manager with strong momentum and a 5.7% dividend, but repeated earnings misses, heavy insider selling and only 8.7% room to the analyst target make it a hold rather than an add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is high, with a wide economic moat, margins of 23% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, though free cash flow is only 65% of net income. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 23% and free cash flow conversion improves above 80% of net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 65% FCF-to-net-income ratio is an earnings quality warning, and asset-management fees can compress quickly in weak markets. | ||
The company missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including by about 35% and 32% in the two most recent, with an average surprise of about -15%. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in the next two reports, ending the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong $1.50 EPS beat in March 2026 shows results are lumpy, likely driven by performance fees that analysts struggle to model. | ||
The $12.49 analyst target is only about 8.7% above the $11.49 price, against a downside of 15%, which leaves a reward-to-risk of 0.58. Analyst target | Analyst targets rise above $14 as earnings recover, widening the upside to 20% or more. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly about 6 analysts cover the stock, so the target is dampened and may lag a strong uptrend and 25% analyst upside signal. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.9/10, with price above its 200-day average, rising on-balance volume, RSI near 67 and a bullish MACD. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day moving average and momentum stays at or above 5.5 over 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day slope is flat and the stock is near its Bollinger upper band, so strong momentum can fade into resistance. | ||
Insiders made 14 sales worth about $1.26M (0.167% of market cap) in the last 90 days with no purchases, which is moderate selling. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows to fewer than 5 transactions per quarter and insiders stop being net sellers. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and insider sales for a closely held firm may reflect liquidity needs, not a negative view. | ||
Business quality is high, with a wide economic moat, margins of 23% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, though free cash flow is only 65% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 23% and free cash flow conversion improves above 80% of net income over 12 months.
CounterA 65% FCF-to-net-income ratio is an earnings quality warning, and asset-management fees can compress quickly in weak markets.
The company missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including by about 35% and 32% in the two most recent, with an average surprise of about -15%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in the next two reports, ending the miss streak.
CounterA strong $1.50 EPS beat in March 2026 shows results are lumpy, likely driven by performance fees that analysts struggle to model.
The $12.49 analyst target is only about 8.7% above the $11.49 price, against a downside of 15%, which leaves a reward-to-risk of 0.58.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $14 as earnings recover, widening the upside to 20% or more.
CounterOnly about 6 analysts cover the stock, so the target is dampened and may lag a strong uptrend and 25% analyst upside signal.
Momentum is strong at 7.9/10, with price above its 200-day average, rising on-balance volume, RSI near 67 and a bullish MACD.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day moving average and momentum stays at or above 5.5 over 12 months.
CounterThe 200-day slope is flat and the stock is near its Bollinger upper band, so strong momentum can fade into resistance.
Insiders made 14 sales worth about $1.26M (0.167% of market cap) in the last 90 days with no purchases, which is moderate selling.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to fewer than 5 transactions per quarter and insiders stop being net sellers.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and insider sales for a closely held firm may reflect liquidity needs, not a negative view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.0 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 65% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,491,035 (0.431% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.7 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 7.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- INSIDER:0.43%=HEAVY
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.52
Upside
+31.1%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Momentum at 1.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Technical at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Growth at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from the current 8/9.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the miss streak to 5.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $11.49, the current price.
- P4Strong Momentum AccumulationTripped
Trip ifShare price drops to below the $10.69 stop-loss level.
- P5Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $2.5M over 90 days from the current $1.26M.