Value
9.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
VINP · Why this verdict
Why Vinci Compass Investments (VINP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company carries a wide economic moat and a track record of compounding strong returns and growth, with margins of 26% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating high fundamental quality. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming the underlying quality thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same data flags an earnings-quality warning of only 56% FCF-to-net-income conversion, suggesting reported earnings may overstate the true cash quality behind the moat. | ||
Vinci Compass trades at a forward P/E of 8.4x with a PEG ratio of 0.11, an unusually low multiple for a business the data separately describes as having compounded strong returns and growth across multiple cycles. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should re-rate higher toward the multiples typical of asset managers with the company's growth profile. | →Stable |
| CounterThe deep discount may instead reflect the market correctly pricing in a structurally impaired growth outlook given the recent string of earnings misses. | ||
Vinci Compass has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, including a 32.47% miss in the most recent print, undercutting the growth narrative the valuation depends on. Earnings | The company should return to at least an in-line print at its next earnings date of 2026-08-12 to arrest the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterA single beat could be dismissed as noise against a genuine 3-quarter deterioration trend, meaning the miss streak may persist even if one quarter surprises positively. | ||
The engine's risk-reward gate shows a favorable asymmetry ratio of 2.81, with 21.9% upside to the take-profit target versus only 7.8% downside to the stop-loss. Reward-to-risk math | The stock should approach or exceed the 21.9% upside target over the next 12 months if the favorable risk-reward setup holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA recent negative news event already downgraded the recommended stance from holding to selling into any strength, which can compress the realized asymmetry faster than the static ratio implies. | ||
The company carries a wide economic moat and a track record of compounding strong returns and growth, with margins of 26% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating high fundamental quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming the underlying quality thesis.
CounterThe same data flags an earnings-quality warning of only 56% FCF-to-net-income conversion, suggesting reported earnings may overstate the true cash quality behind the moat.
Vinci Compass trades at a forward P/E of 8.4x with a PEG ratio of 0.11, an unusually low multiple for a business the data separately describes as having compounded strong returns and growth across multiple cycles.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should re-rate higher toward the multiples typical of asset managers with the company's growth profile.
CounterThe deep discount may instead reflect the market correctly pricing in a structurally impaired growth outlook given the recent string of earnings misses.
Vinci Compass has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, including a 32.47% miss in the most recent print, undercutting the growth narrative the valuation depends on.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line print at its next earnings date of 2026-08-12 to arrest the miss streak.
CounterA single beat could be dismissed as noise against a genuine 3-quarter deterioration trend, meaning the miss streak may persist even if one quarter surprises positively.
The engine's risk-reward gate shows a favorable asymmetry ratio of 2.81, with 21.9% upside to the take-profit target versus only 7.8% downside to the stop-loss.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The stock should approach or exceed the 21.9% upside target over the next 12 months if the favorable risk-reward setup holds.
CounterA recent negative news event already downgraded the recommended stance from holding to selling into any strength, which can compress the realized asymmetry faster than the static ratio implies.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vinci Compass presents a statistically cheap, high-quality asset manager selling at a fraction of its growth-adjusted multiple, but a 3-of-4-quarter earnings miss streak keeps the position a hold rather than an add until the miss streak breaks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 4.4 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 56% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $5,526,228 (0.850% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- INSIDER:0.85%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.24
Upside
+25.1%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Catalyst at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Growth at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.7, Insider at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 as earnings growth decelerates, showing the current 0.11 PEG was not a lasting mispricing.
- P2Wide Moat Compounding Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from the current 8, indicating the quality profile has deteriorated.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 10% (a beat) at the 2026-08-12 report, breaking the 3-of-4-quarter miss streak.
- P4Favorable Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifThe stock declines more than 7.8% from the current price of $9.91, triggering the downside target.