Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
- ▸Attractively valued
VGNT · Why this verdict
Why Versigent (VGNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Versigent is a cheap auto-parts supplier (5.4x forward P/E) with a strong latest earnings beat and a 19% gap to the analyst target, but below-floor business quality, heavy insider selling and steep negative momentum argue against adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is below the engine's 4.0 floor at 3.7/10, with low operating margin and net margin scores (3.5 and 2.8 out of 10) and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Operating and net margins improve enough to lift the quality score above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThin margins are typical of auto-parts suppliers and revenue growth from $2.2B to $2.4B per quarter could drive operating leverage. | ||
Valuation is inexpensive, with a forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG of 0.62, and the $49.40 analyst target is about 19.3% above the $41.40 price. Valuation breakdown | Price closes part of the 19.3% gap to the $49.40 analyst target over 12 months as earnings hold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAuto-parts earnings are cyclical, so a low forward P/E may reflect peak-earnings risk, and only light analyst coverage dampens the target signal. | ||
Revenue is growing, with quarterly revenue up from $2.21B to $2.44B over the last two reported quarters, and the latest EPS of $1.92 beat the $1.44 estimate by 33%. Earnings | Quarterly revenue holds near the $2.42B next-quarter estimate and EPS continues to beat over the next reports. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly one quarter of earnings history is available, so a single beat says little about consistency. | ||
Momentum is very weak at 1.7/10, with an RSI near 21, price below its 200-day average and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and the momentum score rises above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 21 marks an oversold extreme that often precedes a rebound, and capitulation can be the low point. | ||
Insiders sold about $10.1M in the last 90 days (0.343% of market cap) with no buying, and the put/call ratio is an elevated 4.00. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows to near zero and the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales are often pre-planned or tied to compensation, and institutions are accumulating according to the holder-change signal. | ||
Business quality is below the engine's 4.0 floor at 3.7/10, with low operating margin and net margin scores (3.5 and 2.8 out of 10) and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating and net margins improve enough to lift the quality score above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterThin margins are typical of auto-parts suppliers and revenue growth from $2.2B to $2.4B per quarter could drive operating leverage.
Valuation is inexpensive, with a forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG of 0.62, and the $49.40 analyst target is about 19.3% above the $41.40 price.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes part of the 19.3% gap to the $49.40 analyst target over 12 months as earnings hold.
CounterAuto-parts earnings are cyclical, so a low forward P/E may reflect peak-earnings risk, and only light analyst coverage dampens the target signal.
Revenue is growing, with quarterly revenue up from $2.21B to $2.44B over the last two reported quarters, and the latest EPS of $1.92 beat the $1.44 estimate by 33%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds near the $2.42B next-quarter estimate and EPS continues to beat over the next reports.
CounterOnly one quarter of earnings history is available, so a single beat says little about consistency.
Momentum is very weak at 1.7/10, with an RSI near 21, price below its 200-day average and falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and the momentum score rises above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterAn RSI of 21 marks an oversold extreme that often precedes a rebound, and capitulation can be the low point.
Insiders sold about $10.1M in the last 90 days (0.343% of market cap) with no buying, and the put/call ratio is an elevated 4.00.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to near zero and the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider sales are often pre-planned or tied to compensation, and institutions are accumulating according to the holder-change signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $10,065,510 (0.342% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 0.8 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.88
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $35
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.34%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
2.83
Upside
+19.1%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 2.83.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Sentiment at 7.6, and Technical at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Analyst Gap
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 9x from the current 5.4x without a rise in the analyst target above $49.40.
- P2Thin Margin Low Quality
Trip ifNet margin component falls below 2/10 from the current 2.8, or quality score drops below 3.0 from 3.7.
- P3Revenue Growth And Beat
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $2.2B from the latest $2.44B.
- P4Steep Negative Momentum
Trip ifShare price drops to below the $38.90 support level.
- P5Insider Selling And Put Skew
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $20M over 90 days from the current $10.1M.