Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
VBNK · Why this verdict
Why VersaBank (VBNK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
VersaBank combines strong 28% growth, high margins and a cheap PEG with a share price already above the analyst target and only average business quality, which limits further upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Profitability is strong, with margins of 23%, but the business is rated as having no competitive moat and below-average overall quality. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 23% and return on equity improves from its currently low score as growth compounds. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a moat, margins can be competed away, and low ROE and ROA component scores (2.1 and 0.4 out of 10) show the high margin is not converting into strong returns on capital. | ||
Growth is a standout: 28% YoY growth, with quarterly revenue rising from $31.6M to $38.8M over four quarters and the company an industry growth leader among peers. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue continues toward the $43.1M next-quarter estimate and growth stays above 20% YoY over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at a small $0.8B-cap bank can reverse quickly with credit or funding stress, and EPS has been flat near $0.27-0.28 for three quarters despite revenue gains. | ||
The share price of $23.25 is above the $21.68 analyst target, about 6.8% above it, so analysts see no remaining upside at the current price. Analyst target | Earnings growth lifts analyst targets above the current price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only about 2 analysts covering the stock, targets are stale and dampened, and a growth leader can justifiably trade above a thin consensus. | ||
Price is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume, supporting the trend. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day moving average and momentum stays at or above 5.5 over the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBreakouts above a reached analyst target and at the top of the 52-week range with high implied volatility (80%) often retrace sharply. | ||
Valuation looks inexpensive for the growth, with forward P/E of 13.3x and a PEG of 0.07. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays at or below roughly 15x while earnings keep growing, leaving the PEG under 1. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.07 depends on extrapolating 28% growth; if growth normalizes, the multiple is not cheap for a low-moat small bank. | ||
Profitability is strong, with margins of 23%, but the business is rated as having no competitive moat and below-average overall quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 23% and return on equity improves from its currently low score as growth compounds.
CounterWithout a moat, margins can be competed away, and low ROE and ROA component scores (2.1 and 0.4 out of 10) show the high margin is not converting into strong returns on capital.
Growth is a standout: 28% YoY growth, with quarterly revenue rising from $31.6M to $38.8M over four quarters and the company an industry growth leader among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue continues toward the $43.1M next-quarter estimate and growth stays above 20% YoY over 12 months.
CounterGrowth at a small $0.8B-cap bank can reverse quickly with credit or funding stress, and EPS has been flat near $0.27-0.28 for three quarters despite revenue gains.
The share price of $23.25 is above the $21.68 analyst target, about 6.8% above it, so analysts see no remaining upside at the current price.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Earnings growth lifts analyst targets above the current price within 12 months.
CounterWith only about 2 analysts covering the stock, targets are stale and dampened, and a growth leader can justifiably trade above a thin consensus.
Price is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume, supporting the trend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day moving average and momentum stays at or above 5.5 over the next year.
CounterBreakouts above a reached analyst target and at the top of the 52-week range with high implied volatility (80%) often retrace sharply.
Valuation looks inexpensive for the growth, with forward P/E of 13.3x and a PEG of 0.07.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays at or below roughly 15x while earnings keep growing, leaving the PEG under 1.
CounterA PEG of 0.07 depends on extrapolating 28% growth; if growth normalizes, the multiple is not cheap for a low-moat small bank.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 86%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.53
Upside
-3.3%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.8; weakest: Peer rank at 3.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Quality at 4.6, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 28%.
- P2High Margins No Moat
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% from the current 23% level.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls below the $21.97 stop level while the analyst target stays below $21.68.
- P4Breakout Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifShare price closes below its 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P5Attractive Valuation Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 13.3x without matching earnings growth.