Value
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
VBNK · Why this verdict
Why VersaBank (VBNK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
VersaBank combines strong 30% year-over-year growth with an attractive valuation (forward P/E of 13.1x, PEG of 0.08). Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY and the forward P/E should remain below 15x over the next 12 months to sustain this combination. | →Stable |
| CounterNo competitive moat is identified, so the growth-plus-value combination could compress quickly if a larger competitor undercuts VersaBank's niche digital-banking model. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 8.5%, underscoring the strong earnings profile noted in the bull case. Bull case | The company should beat or meet estimates again at the September 3 earnings report to extend the streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one inline quarter came in slightly negative (-2.35% surprise), showing the streak isn't uniformly strong across all recent periods. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages with rising on-balance volume, an RSI of 62, and bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its moving averages and momentum should remain strong over the next 2 quarters, confirming the breakout. | →Stable |
| CounterA momentum score already at 8.5 out of 10 is stretched, and breakouts at extended momentum levels are prone to sharp reversals. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with -6.8% implied upside, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -0.46. Engine gate (failed) | A new take-profit level above the current $24.55 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA continued earnings beat streak and 30% revenue growth could force analysts to raise price targets well above the current level, resolving the negative asymmetry. | ||
At a $0.7 billion market cap, the stock sits below the reach of many institutional investors, an edge the engine flags that can leave shares under-owned and mispriced relative to fundamentals. Edge rationale | As market cap grows or institutional ownership increases over the next 12 months, this constraint-driven mispricing edge should narrow as the price adjusts. | →Stable |
| CounterBeing below institutional reach can also reflect genuine below-average business quality, as flagged in the key risks, rather than solely a size-driven mispricing. | ||
VersaBank combines strong 30% year-over-year growth with an attractive valuation (forward P/E of 13.1x, PEG of 0.08).
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY and the forward P/E should remain below 15x over the next 12 months to sustain this combination.
CounterNo competitive moat is identified, so the growth-plus-value combination could compress quickly if a larger competitor undercuts VersaBank's niche digital-banking model.
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 8.5%, underscoring the strong earnings profile noted in the bull case.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates again at the September 3 earnings report to extend the streak.
CounterThe one inline quarter came in slightly negative (-2.35% surprise), showing the streak isn't uniformly strong across all recent periods.
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages with rising on-balance volume, an RSI of 62, and bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its moving averages and momentum should remain strong over the next 2 quarters, confirming the breakout.
CounterA momentum score already at 8.5 out of 10 is stretched, and breakouts at extended momentum levels are prone to sharp reversals.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with -6.8% implied upside, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -0.46.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A new take-profit level above the current $24.55 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months.
CounterA continued earnings beat streak and 30% revenue growth could force analysts to raise price targets well above the current level, resolving the negative asymmetry.
At a $0.7 billion market cap, the stock sits below the reach of many institutional investors, an edge the engine flags that can leave shares under-owned and mispriced relative to fundamentals.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- As market cap grows or institutional ownership increases over the next 12 months, this constraint-driven mispricing edge should narrow as the price adjusts.
CounterBeing below institutional reach can also reflect genuine below-average business quality, as flagged in the key risks, rather than solely a size-driven mispricing.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
VersaBank pairs 30% revenue growth and an attractive valuation with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a technical breakout, but the stock has already reached its price target with negative asymmetry despite a small-cap institutional-constraint edge.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Above max pain $8
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-6.0%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.9; weakest: Peer rank at 3.7. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.9, Value at 7.7, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Quality at 4.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Attractive Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise turns negative, falling below 0% at the next report.
- P3Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average, a decline of more than 8% from the current $21.90.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifTake-profit level rises above $27 from the current $24.55.
- P5Institutional Constraint Small Cap Edge
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $2 billion from the current $0.7 billion.