Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
VALN · Why this verdict
Why Valneva (VALN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Valneva is a cash-burning, low-quality biotech whose four straight earnings misses and confirmed downtrend outweigh a cheap forward valuation and a large gap to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is poor: free cash flow is about -30% of revenue, there is no competitive moat and the Piotroski F-Score is only 3/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn narrows from -30% of revenue and the Piotroski F-Score improves above 5/9 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotechs routinely burn cash ahead of product ramps, and a large cash balance (current ratio component 7.5) can fund years of losses without impairing the franchise. | ||
The company missed EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about -194%, showing forecasting and execution weakness. Earnings | Quarterly EPS losses come in at or better than estimates, ending the run of misses within the next 2-3 reports. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotech EPS estimates are thin and noisy, so large percentage misses on small absolute losses (-0.40 vs -0.08) overstate real deterioration. | ||
Revenue is declining, about -28%, with quarterly revenue falling from $48.3M to $34.9M over the past year, undermining a growth narrative. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes and grows back toward the $38M next-quarter estimate over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue in vaccine businesses is lumpy with timing of deliveries and milestones, so a year-over-year decline may reverse without any structural problem. | ||
Price action is in a confirmed downtrend: below the 200-day average, 200-day slope -5.6% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, with momentum scoring 1.8/10. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day moving average and momentum score recovers above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavily sold-off small caps at a -57% drawdown can mean-revert sharply on any positive clinical or commercial news, and downtrends tend to be priced in. | ||
Valuation looks inexpensive, with forward P/E of 4.4x and an analyst target of $10.41 versus a $5.26 price, but this rests on estimates the company has been missing. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates hold and the share price moves toward the $10.41 analyst target as losses narrow. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4.4x forward P/E on a loss-making firm that missed 4 straight quarters is likely a value trap, and analyst targets lag deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
Business quality is poor: free cash flow is about -30% of revenue, there is no competitive moat and the Piotroski F-Score is only 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn narrows from -30% of revenue and the Piotroski F-Score improves above 5/9 over 12 months.
CounterBiotechs routinely burn cash ahead of product ramps, and a large cash balance (current ratio component 7.5) can fund years of losses without impairing the franchise.
The company missed EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about -194%, showing forecasting and execution weakness.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS losses come in at or better than estimates, ending the run of misses within the next 2-3 reports.
CounterBiotech EPS estimates are thin and noisy, so large percentage misses on small absolute losses (-0.40 vs -0.08) overstate real deterioration.
Revenue is declining, about -28%, with quarterly revenue falling from $48.3M to $34.9M over the past year, undermining a growth narrative.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes and grows back toward the $38M next-quarter estimate over 12 months.
CounterRevenue in vaccine businesses is lumpy with timing of deliveries and milestones, so a year-over-year decline may reverse without any structural problem.
Price action is in a confirmed downtrend: below the 200-day average, 200-day slope -5.6% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, with momentum scoring 1.8/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day moving average and momentum score recovers above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterHeavily sold-off small caps at a -57% drawdown can mean-revert sharply on any positive clinical or commercial news, and downtrends tend to be priced in.
Valuation looks inexpensive, with forward P/E of 4.4x and an analyst target of $10.41 versus a $5.26 price, but this rests on estimates the company has been missing.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates hold and the share price moves toward the $10.41 analyst target as losses narrow.
CounterA 4.4x forward P/E on a loss-making firm that missed 4 straight quarters is likely a value trap, and analyst targets lag deteriorating fundamentals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -30% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -28%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 114%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
Catalyst
1.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:9.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
9.58
Upside
+81.8%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the DEATH_CROSS gate's HARD_BLOCK outcome against Value at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 9.58.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Sentiment at 7.2, and Growth at 5.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 1.7, Quality at 1.9, and Technical at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 40% of revenue from the current 30%.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending misses beyond 6.
- P3Declining Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $29M, under the lowest of the last 5 quarters ($29.4M).
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifShare price drops to below the $5.09 stop-loss support level.
- P5Cheap Valuation Vs Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst price target falls below $7 from the current $10.41.