Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
UWMC · Why this verdict
Why UWM Holdings (UWMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 41%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1635% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 120%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $152,351,806 (3.641% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 109%
- ▸Above max pain $0
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:8.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
7.98
Upside
+91.6%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.77>1.3, MCap $4.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.98 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Value at 8.8, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Insider at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.