Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.62
UTL · Why this verdict
Why UNITIL (UTL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with only -1.0% implied upside to the take-profit level, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -1.27, with downside risk of 4.5% now exceeding upside potential. Engine gate (failed) | A new take-profit level above the current $52.94 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is in a technical breakout (golden cross, above all moving averages) which can push prices through resistance levels that would otherwise cap upside. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages, an RSI of 64, and bullish MACD — a constructive near-term technical picture. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its moving averages and the breakout setup should be confirmed by continued price strength over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution even as price makes new highs, a divergence that often precedes a failed breakout. | ||
The stock carries a leverage penalty for a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 and is flagged for below-average business quality, with an earnings-quality red flag of -145% FCF-to-net-income. Bear case | The FCF-to-net-income ratio should turn positive and the leverage penalty should ease over the next 12 months for the quality concern to resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities routinely carry higher leverage and near-term capex-driven FCF/NI divergence as a structural feature of the business model, not a sign of distress. | ||
Forward estimates have fallen 37.4% over the last 30 days, used here as a sentiment proxy, alongside earnings concerns flagged in 2 of the last 4 quarters. Catalyst breakdown | Forward estimate revisions should stabilize or turn positive over the next 2 quarters to indicate improving sentiment. | →Stable |
| CounterA large single-quarter estimate swing can reflect one-time regulatory or seasonal items in utility accounting rather than a genuine deterioration in the outlook. | ||
The stock's dividend-safety reading of 346% indicates a well-covered income stream that could support the shares even if capital appreciation is limited. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should continue to be paid without a cut over the next 12 months, holding the dividend-safety reading at or above the current level. | →Stable |
| CounterA dividend framed as extremely well-covered alongside an earnings-quality red flag on FCF/NI raises the question of whether the dividend is truly cash-covered rather than covered only on an accounting-earnings basis. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with only -1.0% implied upside to the take-profit level, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -1.27, with downside risk of 4.5% now exceeding upside potential.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A new take-profit level above the current $52.94 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is in a technical breakout (golden cross, above all moving averages) which can push prices through resistance levels that would otherwise cap upside.
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages, an RSI of 64, and bullish MACD — a constructive near-term technical picture.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its moving averages and the breakout setup should be confirmed by continued price strength over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution even as price makes new highs, a divergence that often precedes a failed breakout.
The stock carries a leverage penalty for a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 and is flagged for below-average business quality, with an earnings-quality red flag of -145% FCF-to-net-income.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio should turn positive and the leverage penalty should ease over the next 12 months for the quality concern to resolve.
CounterRegulated utilities routinely carry higher leverage and near-term capex-driven FCF/NI divergence as a structural feature of the business model, not a sign of distress.
Forward estimates have fallen 37.4% over the last 30 days, used here as a sentiment proxy, alongside earnings concerns flagged in 2 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward estimate revisions should stabilize or turn positive over the next 2 quarters to indicate improving sentiment.
CounterA large single-quarter estimate swing can reflect one-time regulatory or seasonal items in utility accounting rather than a genuine deterioration in the outlook.
The stock's dividend-safety reading of 346% indicates a well-covered income stream that could support the shares even if capital appreciation is limited.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should continue to be paid without a cut over the next 12 months, holding the dividend-safety reading at or above the current level.
CounterA dividend framed as extremely well-covered alongside an earnings-quality red flag on FCF/NI raises the question of whether the dividend is truly cash-covered rather than covered only on an accounting-earnings basis.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
UNITIL is in a technical breakout with a well-covered dividend, but has already reached its analyst price target with negative asymmetry, carries a leverage penalty and an earnings-quality red flag on FCF-to-net-income, and has seen forward estimates fall 37.4% over the last month.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 2.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -145% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.96
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.96 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, Momentum at 6.6, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 4.4, Sentiment at 5.3, and Catalyst at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifTake-profit level rises above $60 from the current $52.94.
- P2Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average, a decline of more than 5% from the current $53.48.
- P3Leverage Penalty Below Average Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 0% from the current -145%.
- P4Falling Estimates Sentiment Deterioration
Trip if30-day forward estimate revision rises above 0% from the current -37.4%.
- P5Elite Dividend Safety Income Support
Trip ifDividend-safety reading falls below 100% from the current 346%.