Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
URGN · Why this verdict
Why UroGen Pharma (URGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
UroGen is a fast-growing biotech (199% revenue growth) with 51.3% upside to the analyst target, but cash burn of 57% of revenue, two consecutive earnings misses, insider selling and dependence on two products keep the risk high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 199% year over year and UroGen is the industry growth leader, with a Rule of 40 reading of 143. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth is from a small launch base and will decelerate sharply, and growth confidence is only 0.67. | ||
The $52.20 analyst target is 51.3% above the $34.49 price, against 12.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of about 4.0. Targets | Price moves toward the analyst target as sales ramp. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly 8 analysts cover the stock, and biotech targets are often cut sharply after a miss. | ||
The company burns cash at 57% of revenue and has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a quality score of only 4.7. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn narrows to less than 30% of revenue and EPS beats resume. | →Stable |
| CounterLaunch-phase biotechs burn cash by design, but 2 consecutive misses suggest forecasting is unreliable. | ||
Sales are concentrated in two products, Jelmyto and Zusduri, flagged as a high-severity concentration risk. Bear case | Both products keep growing without a safety or reimbursement setback. | →Stable |
| CounterAny safety, reimbursement or competition problem on either product would hit nearly all revenue. | ||
Insiders sold $3.0M (0.180% of market cap) and short interest is 16%, a bearish positioning signal. Key risks | Insider selling slows and short interest falls below 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is oversold in an uptrend (RSI 20) and insider selling at 0.18% of market cap is small, so a rebound is plausible. | ||
Revenue is growing 199% year over year and UroGen is the industry growth leader, with a Rule of 40 reading of 143.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterTriple-digit growth is from a small launch base and will decelerate sharply, and growth confidence is only 0.67.
The $52.20 analyst target is 51.3% above the $34.49 price, against 12.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of about 4.0.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as sales ramp.
CounterOnly 8 analysts cover the stock, and biotech targets are often cut sharply after a miss.
The company burns cash at 57% of revenue and has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a quality score of only 4.7.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn narrows to less than 30% of revenue and EPS beats resume.
CounterLaunch-phase biotechs burn cash by design, but 2 consecutive misses suggest forecasting is unreliable.
Sales are concentrated in two products, Jelmyto and Zusduri, flagged as a high-severity concentration risk.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Both products keep growing without a safety or reimbursement setback.
CounterAny safety, reimbursement or competition problem on either product would hit nearly all revenue.
Insiders sold $3.0M (0.180% of market cap) and short interest is 16%, a bearish positioning signal.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows and short interest falls below 10%.
CounterThe stock is oversold in an uptrend (RSI 20) and insider selling at 0.18% of market cap is small, so a rebound is plausible.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -57% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 143 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 199% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 75%
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,037,646 (0.184% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 5.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:5.4>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.18%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.38
Upside
+52.5%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:5.4>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.2, and Value at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Momentum at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY from the current 199%.
- P2Large Analyst Target Gap
Trip ifPrice falls more than 6% to the $32.40 stop level.
- P3Cash Burn And Earnings Misses
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 70% of revenue or EPS misses estimates in 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Two Product Concentration
Trip ifEither product's quarterly sales fall more than 20% sequentially.
- P5Insider Selling And Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 25% from the current 16%.