Value
9.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
UFCS · Why this verdict
Why United Fire Group (UFCS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
United Fire Group is a cheap property-and-casualty insurer on a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and a breakout, but the price is 13.3% above the analyst target and near its 52-week high, so upside is already largely consumed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
United Fire has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including a 87% surprise last quarter. Catalyst breakdown | EPS beats continue over the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA surprise of 87% against a low $0.70 estimate shows estimates were too low and are now being reset higher, making further big beats harder. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 11.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.25. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 14x as earnings grow, keeping the valuation attractive. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurer valuations are cheap in part because underwriting results are volatile, and the price has already risen to the 52-week high. | ||
The price of $57.38 is 13.3% above the $49.73 analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside against 9.7% downside to the stop. Targets | Analysts raise targets toward the price as earnings continue to beat. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets lag price in a breakout, but the premium suggests the market is ahead of analyst views and could revert. | ||
A golden cross and a price above all moving averages show strong momentum (7.4 out of 10), with the stock only 1.4% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks at their 52-week highs with Bollinger and support scores of 1.6 and 1.3 are extended and prone to pullbacks. | ||
Business quality is below average at 4.8 out of 10, with modest insider selling of $542,799 (0.037% of market cap) and a recent officer change. Bear case | Quality score rises above 5.5 and insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion of 181% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggest the quality discount may be too harsh. | ||
United Fire has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including a 87% surprise last quarter.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue over the next 4 quarters.
CounterA surprise of 87% against a low $0.70 estimate shows estimates were too low and are now being reset higher, making further big beats harder.
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 11.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.25.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 14x as earnings grow, keeping the valuation attractive.
CounterInsurer valuations are cheap in part because underwriting results are volatile, and the price has already risen to the 52-week high.
The price of $57.38 is 13.3% above the $49.73 analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside against 9.7% downside to the stop.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the price as earnings continue to beat.
CounterTargets lag price in a breakout, but the premium suggests the market is ahead of analyst views and could revert.
A golden cross and a price above all moving averages show strong momentum (7.4 out of 10), with the stock only 1.4% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume.
CounterStocks at their 52-week highs with Bollinger and support scores of 1.6 and 1.3 are extended and prone to pullbacks.
Business quality is below average at 4.8 out of 10, with modest insider selling of $542,799 (0.037% of market cap) and a recent officer change.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 5.5 and insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap.
CounterCash conversion of 181% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggest the quality discount may be too harsh.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 1.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 181% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $542,799 (0.038% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.46
Upside
-11.7%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 9.2; weakest: Quality at 4.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Growth at 8.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; the weakest are Quality at 4.8, Momentum at 5.1, and Sentiment at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 16x from the current 11.9x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 5.2% to the $54.40 stop level.
- P4Breakout Momentum Near High
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average and momentum falls below 5.0 from 7.4.
- P5Below Average Quality Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider 90-day selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap from the current 0.037%.