Value
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
UA · Why this verdict
Why Under Armour (UA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -11% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-13.7%)
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $5,869,079 (0.255% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -13.7% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- INSIDER:0.26%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
13.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.69>1.3, MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Insider at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Sentiment at 3.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.