Value
10.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
TWN · Why this verdict
Why Taiwan Fund, Inc. (The) (TWN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bull case highlights a strong overall score of 7.0 out of 10, combining attractive valuation with a strong growth profile. Bull case | The overall score should stay at or above 6.5 out of 10 over the next 12 months, sustaining the strong composite rating. | →Stable |
| CounterA closed-end fund's overall score is heavily influenced by its underlying holdings' momentum, which can reverse quickly if Taiwan equities pull back. | ||
The quality notes cite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating a fundamentally sound underlying position. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should stay at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months, confirming durable fundamental strength. | →Stable |
| CounterA near-perfect Piotroski score for a country-fund vehicle largely reflects the health of its underlying holdings rather than fund-specific execution. | ||
Short interest stands at an elevated 56% of float, flagged as a key risk despite the fund's otherwise strong scoring profile. Key risks | Short interest should decline below 30% of float over the next 12 months if bearish positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in a closed-end country fund can reflect basis-trade or arbitrage positioning against the underlying NAV rather than a genuine bearish view on Taiwan equities. | ||
The engine flags upside as exhausted with a 0.0% asymmetry reading, despite the stock trading within a mid-range setup. Gates warning | The asymmetry ratio should rise back above 1.5 over the next 12 months as a new catalyst or price pullback restores upside room. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong fund with growth and value characteristics can keep compounding NAV even without any single technical asymmetry signal. | ||
The bull case highlights a strong overall score of 7.0 out of 10, combining attractive valuation with a strong growth profile.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The overall score should stay at or above 6.5 out of 10 over the next 12 months, sustaining the strong composite rating.
CounterA closed-end fund's overall score is heavily influenced by its underlying holdings' momentum, which can reverse quickly if Taiwan equities pull back.
The quality notes cite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating a fundamentally sound underlying position.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should stay at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months, confirming durable fundamental strength.
CounterA near-perfect Piotroski score for a country-fund vehicle largely reflects the health of its underlying holdings rather than fund-specific execution.
Short interest stands at an elevated 56% of float, flagged as a key risk despite the fund's otherwise strong scoring profile.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 30% of float over the next 12 months if bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterHigh short interest in a closed-end country fund can reflect basis-trade or arbitrage positioning against the underlying NAV rather than a genuine bearish view on Taiwan equities.
The engine flags upside as exhausted with a 0.0% asymmetry reading, despite the stock trading within a mid-range setup.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise back above 1.5 over the next 12 months as a new catalyst or price pullback restores upside room.
CounterA strong fund with growth and value characteristics can keep compounding NAV even without any single technical asymmetry signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Taiwan Fund shows a strong overall score with attractive valuation, strong growth, and a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score, though high short interest and exhausted upside temper the case for adding more.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 40% YoY
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $11,902 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 10.0 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| beta | 5.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 56%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.44>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Growth at 10.0, and Technical at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Insider at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Overall Score
Trip ifOverall score falls below 5.0 out of 10, dropping from the current 7.0.
- P2Strong Piotroski Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9, dropping from the current 9.
- P3High Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 70% of float, up from the current 56%.
- P4Upside Exhausted Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below 0.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming upside remains exhausted.