Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
TWI · Why this verdict
Why Titan International, Inc. (DE) (TWI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Titan International is a deeply discounted small-cap farm and heavy-equipment maker with a 50.9% gap to the analyst target and a 3-for-3 earnings beat streak, but very weak quality (2.4/10) and a confirmed downtrend argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is below the minimum bar at 2.4 out of 10, with no competitive moat and near-zero profitability components (ROE 0.0, net margin 0.0). Quality breakdown | Margins improve so that the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCyclical equipment makers have thin trough margins that recover quickly, but the weak quality ranks in the bottom of its peers (1.4 of 10). | ||
The $10.20 analyst target is 50.9% above the $6.76 price, against 6.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 7.4. Targets | Price closes a meaningful part of the gap to the target as earnings continue to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly 4 analysts cover the stock, and a target 78% above price often reflects stale or optimistic estimates. | ||
Titan has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, and earnings growth scores 10 out of 10. Catalyst breakdown | Beats continue across the next 4 quarters with positive EPS surprise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats against near-zero or negative estimates (e.g., $0.10 against -$0.04) are easy to achieve and may not reflect lasting earnings power. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is falling 2.1% per 30 days, and sits 42% below its 52-week high, with a death cross in place. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average as improving momentum turns the trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross and a 42% drawdown signal persistent selling; the stock may keep falling regardless of valuation. | ||
The stock is attractively valued with a forward P/E of 23.3x on depressed earnings, PEG of 0.19 and a price-to-sales score of 10 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth brings forward P/E below 15x over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 23.3x is not cheap in absolute terms and may reflect depressed earnings that could fall further. | ||
Business quality is below the minimum bar at 2.4 out of 10, with no competitive moat and near-zero profitability components (ROE 0.0, net margin 0.0).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins improve so that the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterCyclical equipment makers have thin trough margins that recover quickly, but the weak quality ranks in the bottom of its peers (1.4 of 10).
The $10.20 analyst target is 50.9% above the $6.76 price, against 6.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 7.4.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price closes a meaningful part of the gap to the target as earnings continue to improve.
CounterOnly 4 analysts cover the stock, and a target 78% above price often reflects stale or optimistic estimates.
Titan has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, and earnings growth scores 10 out of 10.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Beats continue across the next 4 quarters with positive EPS surprise.
CounterBeats against near-zero or negative estimates (e.g., $0.10 against -$0.04) are easy to achieve and may not reflect lasting earnings power.
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is falling 2.1% per 30 days, and sits 42% below its 52-week high, with a death cross in place.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average as improving momentum turns the trend.
CounterA death cross and a 42% drawdown signal persistent selling; the stock may keep falling regardless of valuation.
The stock is attractively valued with a forward P/E of 23.3x on depressed earnings, PEG of 0.19 and a price-to-sales score of 10 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth brings forward P/E below 15x over 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 23.3x is not cheap in absolute terms and may reflect depressed earnings that could fall further.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 81%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:8.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.17
Upside
+54.1%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Catalyst at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 8.17.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.2, Value at 8.1, and Growth at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Momentum at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Gap To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 6.2% to the $6.34 stop level while the analyst target stays at $10.20.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Very Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Deep Drawdown
Trip ifDrawdown from the 52-week high exceeds 50% from the current 42%.
- P5Attractive Valuation Small Cap
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 30x from the current 23.3x.