Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
TWI · Why this verdict
Why Titan International, Inc. (DE) (TWI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trips a hard-block death-cross gate and fails the momentum gate at 2.8, well below the 4.5 threshold, confirming a bearish technical structure. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score should rise above 4.5 and the death-cross block should clear over the next 12 months as the trend stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross is a lagging indicator, and the stock's positive asymmetry ratio of 3.99 suggests the market may already be pricing in a turn. | ||
The business quality score of 2.1 sits below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, with the company cash-burning at -1% of revenue and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as free cash flow turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA modest -1% FCF-to-revenue burn is close to breakeven and could flip positive with a small operational improvement. | ||
Options positioning shows an extreme put/call ratio of 40.00, flagged as a key risk in the elevated put/call metric. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize below 5.0 over the next 12 months as options positioning becomes less lopsided. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio this extreme in a thinly-traded industrial name is likely a low-open-interest statistical artifact rather than a genuine bearish signal. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued with a PEG ratio of 0.15 and 63% implied analyst upside to price targets. Sentiment breakdown | The share price should close a meaningful portion of the gap toward analyst price targets, narrowing the 63% implied upside over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap valuation on a quality-impaired, cash-burning industrial name can stay cheap indefinitely without a catalyst to force a re-rating. | ||
The stock trips a hard-block death-cross gate and fails the momentum gate at 2.8, well below the 4.5 threshold, confirming a bearish technical structure.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score should rise above 4.5 and the death-cross block should clear over the next 12 months as the trend stabilizes.
CounterA death cross is a lagging indicator, and the stock's positive asymmetry ratio of 3.99 suggests the market may already be pricing in a turn.
The business quality score of 2.1 sits below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, with the company cash-burning at -1% of revenue and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as free cash flow turns positive.
CounterA modest -1% FCF-to-revenue burn is close to breakeven and could flip positive with a small operational improvement.
Options positioning shows an extreme put/call ratio of 40.00, flagged as a key risk in the elevated put/call metric.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize below 5.0 over the next 12 months as options positioning becomes less lopsided.
CounterA put/call ratio this extreme in a thinly-traded industrial name is likely a low-open-interest statistical artifact rather than a genuine bearish signal.
The stock screens as attractively valued with a PEG ratio of 0.15 and 63% implied analyst upside to price targets.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The share price should close a meaningful portion of the gap toward analyst price targets, narrowing the 63% implied upside over 12 months.
CounterA cheap valuation on a quality-impaired, cash-burning industrial name can stay cheap indefinitely without a catalyst to force a re-rating.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Titan International screens as attractively valued with a favorable asymmetry ratio, but weak business quality, a confirmed death-cross downtrend, and an extreme put/call skew point to exiting the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 65%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 20.00
- ▸High IV: 128%
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.31
Upside
+39.9%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.45>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Growth at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Momentum at 2.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hard Block Death Cross
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 2.8, clearing the death-cross hard block.
- P2Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.1, clearing the engine's minimum floor.
- P3Extreme Put Call Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 5.0, down sharply from the current 40.00.
- P4Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside estimate compresses below 20% from the current 63%, signaling the valuation gap has closed or targets have been cut.