Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $4.60
- Estimate
- $4.52
- Surprise
- +1.7%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 7.5 → 7.7/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) beat the $4.52 estimate with adjusted EPS of $4.60 — a modest 1.7% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (7.5/10) to Strong Buy at 7.7/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates TSM Buy (Wait) at 7.4/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +1.7% surprise compares with a +5.7% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-01-14.
What supports the rating
- V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.0 in RISK_OFF)
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
- Negative momentum
- Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $433.73
- Entry target
- $413.70
- Price target
- $525.95
- Stop
- $394.92
- Upside to target
- +21.3%
- Reward-to-risk
- 3.5:1
The stock trades at 28.5× trailing but 18.8× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
TSM at TrendMatrix's latest read
Technology names get repriced on forward expectations more than trailing prints — a quarter here is read through next-year growth and multiple, not the EPS line alone.
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $2279.51B
- P/E (fwd)
- 18.8
- P/E (ttm)
- 28.5
- 52-week range
- $266.82–$487.47
- Off 52-week high
- 11.0%
- RSI (14)
- 41
- Volume vs avg
- 0.07×
- Score today
- 7.4/10