TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.24
- Estimate
- $0.26
- Surprise
- -5.9%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $35.5M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.8 → 5.9/10
Revenue source: yfinance_provisional (provisional — SEC XBRL not yet filed for this period).
How the report landed
TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) missed the $0.26 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.24 — a clear 5.9% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.8/10) to Sell at 5.9/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Coverage in the report window
- TPG RE Finance Trust Q3 Adj. EPS $0.07 Misses $0.26 Estimate, Sales $35.924M Beat $27.275M Estimate — benzinga, 2026-10-26
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates TRTX Sell at 5.7/10.
0 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -5.9% surprise compares with a -5.4% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-02-16.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Analyst upside: 28%
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%)
- Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
- Consecutive earnings misses (3)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $6.49
- Price target
- $8.30
- Stop
- $6.05
- Upside to target
- +27.9%
- Reward-to-risk
- 2.0:1
The stock trades at 16.6× trailing but 5.9× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
TRTX at TrendMatrix's latest read
REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $492.1M
- P/E (fwd)
- 5.9
- P/E (ttm)
- 16.6
- 52-week range
- $5.60–$9.37
- Off 52-week high
- 30.7%
- RSI (14)
- 67
- Volume vs avg
- 1.17×
- Score today
- 5.7/10