Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.3 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
TPL · Why this verdict
Why Texas Pacific Land (TPL) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Strong margins: 60%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -11% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 7.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $27,931 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 2.3 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.66
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $290
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 62.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOATPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.3x,ratio=0.10x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.50
Upside
-4.5%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.50.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Growth at 6.7, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, Catalyst at 3.9, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.50 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.