Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.06
TMO · Why this verdict
Why Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Thermo Fisher pairs a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and strong financial-health scores (Piotroski 9/9) with a price that has already reached the analyst target, so upside looks limited and the case is to hold rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Thermo Fisher has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, showing reliable execution against expectations. Earnings | Continued EPS beats with average surprise staying near the current 3.9% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats against lowered estimates are easy to deliver, and with the price at the analyst target a single miss could trigger a sharp de-rating. | ||
The balance sheet and operating quality are sound, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a quality score of 6.3 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score holds at 8 or higher and the quality score stays above 6 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterQuality components such as ROE (4.5) and gross margin (4.2) score only mid-range, so the headline F-Score may overstate true profitability. | ||
The share price of $673.82 sits just 0.3% below the $675.83 analyst target, leaving almost no upside against 6.7% downside to the stop. Bear case | Either analyst targets are raised meaningfully above the current price or the stock consolidates until upside widens beyond a few percent. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price; consistent beats could drive target upgrades that reopen upside, making the 'limited upside' read too pessimistic. | ||
Momentum is constructive: rising on-balance volume accumulation and trading above the 200-day moving average, with the stock 4.5% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average with OBV continuing to rise over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum score of 5.4 is only middling and the MACD component is 0, so the uptrend may be stalling near the highs. | ||
Insiders sold about $61.6M over 90 days with no buys (93 sales), while the put/call ratio is elevated at 4.40. Key risks | Insider net selling fades and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5 over the coming year. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe selling is only 0.025% of market cap and is routine; the high put/call ratio may reflect hedging rather than bearish conviction. | ||
Thermo Fisher has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, showing reliable execution against expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats with average surprise staying near the current 3.9% over the next 12 months.
CounterBeats against lowered estimates are easy to deliver, and with the price at the analyst target a single miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
The balance sheet and operating quality are sound, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a quality score of 6.3 out of 10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score holds at 8 or higher and the quality score stays above 6 over 12 months.
CounterQuality components such as ROE (4.5) and gross margin (4.2) score only mid-range, so the headline F-Score may overstate true profitability.
The share price of $673.82 sits just 0.3% below the $675.83 analyst target, leaving almost no upside against 6.7% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Either analyst targets are raised meaningfully above the current price or the stock consolidates until upside widens beyond a few percent.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price; consistent beats could drive target upgrades that reopen upside, making the 'limited upside' read too pessimistic.
Momentum is constructive: rising on-balance volume accumulation and trading above the 200-day moving average, with the stock 4.5% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average with OBV continuing to rise over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum score of 5.4 is only middling and the MACD component is 0, so the uptrend may be stalling near the highs.
Insiders sold about $61.6M over 90 days with no buys (93 sales), while the put/call ratio is elevated at 4.40.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Insider net selling fades and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5 over the coming year.
CounterThe selling is only 0.025% of market cap and is routine; the high put/call ratio may reflect hedging rather than bearish conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $61,333,609 (0.024% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.86
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.41
Upside
-4.0%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.1; weakest: Technical at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.1, Momentum at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.7, Value at 4.0, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% (a miss) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Financial Quality Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P3Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifPrice falls more than 6.7% below the current $673.82, reaching the $628.38 stop level.
- P4Volume Accumulation Uptrend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average and the momentum score falls below 4.0 from 5.4.
- P5Insider Selling And Hedging Signals
Trip ifInsider 90-day sell value exceeds $150M or the put/call ratio rises above 6.0 from 4.40.