Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸Attractively valued
TMHC · Why this verdict
Why Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio (TMHC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -27%
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 93)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 93 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.68
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $35
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.44
Upside
-21.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.48>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.44 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Catalyst at 6.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 3.0, and Sentiment at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.