Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.00
- ▸Attractively valued
TILE · Why this verdict
Why Interface (TILE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Interface, Inc. delivers a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average 21.8% positive surprise and a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, but with the stock price above the analyst target and negative upside asymmetry, the current setup is not compelling for new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9 combined with a free cash flow conversion of 74% relative to net income and a wide economic moat indicates a financially sound business with durable competitive positioning. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at or above 8 out of 9 and free cash flow margin does not deteriorate below 50% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 74% free cash flow conversion rate relative to net income is flagged as an earnings quality warning, suggesting accruals may be flattering reported income. | ||
Interface has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.8%, including beats of 24%, 21%, 27%, and 15%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters and the average surprise percentage remains above 10% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter streak at elevated surprise levels may reflect overly conservative analyst estimates rather than genuine earnings power, and mean reversion in estimates could compress future surprises. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average confirm active institutional accumulation and a technically sound uptrend, with RSI at 64 and bullish MACD divergence. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues rising and the stock remains above its 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is already near the 52-week high and approaching analyst targets, which historically leads to distribution pressure as momentum players take profits. | ||
With only 1.1% upside to the resistance target and negative asymmetry at -0.03, the stock has reached its near-term price ceiling, limiting the risk-reward for new positions despite the strong fundamental backdrop. Catalyst breakdown | The analyst price target rises above $34 within 12 months, restoring at least 8% upside from current levels and re-establishing positive asymmetry. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest of 10% creates a short-squeeze dynamic where further upside beyond the target is possible if shorts are forced to cover. | ||
A Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9 combined with a free cash flow conversion of 74% relative to net income and a wide economic moat indicates a financially sound business with durable competitive positioning.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at or above 8 out of 9 and free cash flow margin does not deteriorate below 50% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterA 74% free cash flow conversion rate relative to net income is flagged as an earnings quality warning, suggesting accruals may be flattering reported income.
Interface has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.8%, including beats of 24%, 21%, 27%, and 15%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters and the average surprise percentage remains above 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterA four-quarter streak at elevated surprise levels may reflect overly conservative analyst estimates rather than genuine earnings power, and mean reversion in estimates could compress future surprises.
Rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average confirm active institutional accumulation and a technically sound uptrend, with RSI at 64 and bullish MACD divergence.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues rising and the stock remains above its 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is already near the 52-week high and approaching analyst targets, which historically leads to distribution pressure as momentum players take profits.
With only 1.1% upside to the resistance target and negative asymmetry at -0.03, the stock has reached its near-term price ceiling, limiting the risk-reward for new positions despite the strong fundamental backdrop.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The analyst price target rises above $34 within 12 months, restoring at least 8% upside from current levels and re-establishing positive asymmetry.
CounterHigh short interest of 10% creates a short-squeeze dynamic where further upside beyond the target is possible if shorts are forced to cover.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 6.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 71% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,584,443 (0.173% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.3 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.74
Upside
+9.4%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.00>1.3, MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.7, Value at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5, Insider at 4.5, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consistent positive beat pattern.
- P2High Piotroski Financial Strength
Trip ifPiotroski financial strength score drops below 7 out of 9, signaling meaningful deterioration in financial health.
- P3Momentum Accumulation Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume declines for more than 60 consecutive days.
- P4Target Reached Asymmetry Block
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $28, more than 10% below the current price of $31.35, signaling downside risk ahead.