Value
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.5 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 45.7x
- ▸PEG: 3.20
- ▸Expensive valuation
TFSL · Why this verdict
Why TFS Financial (TFSL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.1 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.8 |
| days to cover | 0.9 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸High IV: 169%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.8 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.05
Upside
-21.0%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.4, Growth at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Value at 2.4, Peer rank at 2.8, and Catalyst at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.