Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.35
- ▸Attractively valued
TFII · Why this verdict
Why TFI International (TFII) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TFI International has an exceptional free-cash-flow conversion rate of 194% of net income and a 3-quarter earnings beat streak, but the business has declining revenue, a quality score below the minimum threshold, and negative asymmetry with the stock trading above its intrinsic value target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TFI converts 194% of reported net income into free cash flow, one of the highest conversion rates in the trucking industry, suggesting the business generates substantially more real economic value than its accounting profits indicate. Quality | Free cash flow conversion remaining above 150% of net income over the next 4 quarters would confirm that the cash generation advantage is structural and not a short-term working capital benefit. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to earnings can reflect elevated depreciation charges that will eventually require significant reinvestment in aging assets, particularly in a capital-intensive trucking fleet business. | ||
TFI beat earnings per share estimates in 3 of the last 3 reported quarters with positive surprises of 13.3%, 27.9%, and 8.6%, and received recent analyst upgrades noted in news, suggesting the market may be underestimating its earnings power. Earnings | Continued earnings beats with positive surprise above 8% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm management is guiding conservatively. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTFI's third quarter in the data set was an inline result rather than a true beat, and average freight volumes and spot rates in trucking are highly sensitive to industrial production cycles that are currently weakening. | ||
TFI's revenue declined approximately 1% year-over-year, placing it near the bottom of its peer group in growth rank (1.1 out of 10), suggesting the company may be losing market share or operating in structurally weakening freight markets. Growth | Revenue returning to positive growth above 3% year-over-year in the next annual report would signal the freight cycle has turned and TFI is winning back volume. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declines in trucking often reflect industry-wide capacity rationalization rather than company-specific issues, and TFI's cost controls during a down cycle can position it for outsized margin recovery when volumes recover. | ||
With the stock at $155.70 and the analyst-derived take-profit at $164.34, the reported upside is only 5.5%, but the V9 asymmetry flag marks negative asymmetry at -1.1x because the downside risk to support is greater than the upside to the target. Targets | A price pullback below $135, more than 13% below current levels, would restore a more favorable entry with upside-to-downside ratio greater than 1.5x. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock's volume distribution shows falling on-balance-volume, meaning sellers may already be active, and a natural pullback to better levels could occur within the current technical setup. | ||
TFI converts 194% of reported net income into free cash flow, one of the highest conversion rates in the trucking industry, suggesting the business generates substantially more real economic value than its accounting profits indicate.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remaining above 150% of net income over the next 4 quarters would confirm that the cash generation advantage is structural and not a short-term working capital benefit.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to earnings can reflect elevated depreciation charges that will eventually require significant reinvestment in aging assets, particularly in a capital-intensive trucking fleet business.
TFI beat earnings per share estimates in 3 of the last 3 reported quarters with positive surprises of 13.3%, 27.9%, and 8.6%, and received recent analyst upgrades noted in news, suggesting the market may be underestimating its earnings power.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued earnings beats with positive surprise above 8% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm management is guiding conservatively.
CounterTFI's third quarter in the data set was an inline result rather than a true beat, and average freight volumes and spot rates in trucking are highly sensitive to industrial production cycles that are currently weakening.
TFI's revenue declined approximately 1% year-over-year, placing it near the bottom of its peer group in growth rank (1.1 out of 10), suggesting the company may be losing market share or operating in structurally weakening freight markets.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue returning to positive growth above 3% year-over-year in the next annual report would signal the freight cycle has turned and TFI is winning back volume.
CounterRevenue declines in trucking often reflect industry-wide capacity rationalization rather than company-specific issues, and TFI's cost controls during a down cycle can position it for outsized margin recovery when volumes recover.
With the stock at $155.70 and the analyst-derived take-profit at $164.34, the reported upside is only 5.5%, but the V9 asymmetry flag marks negative asymmetry at -1.1x because the downside risk to support is greater than the upside to the target.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A price pullback below $135, more than 13% below current levels, would restore a more favorable entry with upside-to-downside ratio greater than 1.5x.
CounterThe stock's volume distribution shows falling on-balance-volume, meaning sellers may already be active, and a natural pullback to better levels could occur within the current technical setup.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 186% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.37 (n=3)
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.86
Upside
+21.9%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.47>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.86 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Value at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Quality at 4.4, Peer rank at 4.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free Cash Flow Conversion Strength
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income drops below 100% in any reported 12-month period, indicating the conversion advantage has deteriorated significantly.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the recent positive beat pattern.
- P3Revenue Decline Headwind
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 5% year-over-year in the next annual report, indicating an accelerating market-share loss or freight-cycle deterioration.
- P4Overvalued Vs Intrinsic Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $175, exceeding the current take-profit level by more than 6%, without a corresponding upward revision to analyst targets.