Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.85
TECK · Why this verdict
Why Teck Resources (TECK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teck Resources delivered 72% revenue growth year-over-year, has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 48%, and holds a maximum Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — though the stock trades 38.6% above the analyst consensus price target, creating significant asymmetry risk to the downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Teck Resources grew revenue 72% year-over-year, achieving a maximum growth score of 10 out of 10 — driven by strong commodity pricing and production volumes in copper and zinc — placing it as the top growth name in the industrial metals and mining peer group. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining above-average growth relative to peers. | →Stable |
| CounterMining revenue growth at 72% is heavily commodity-price dependent and can reverse sharply; a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 4.93 at the current stock price suggests the market is not assigning full value to cyclical earnings, reflecting justified skepticism about growth sustainability. | ||
Teck carries a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum achievable — reflecting excellent balance sheet strength, profitability metrics, and operating efficiency, which provides resilience during commodity price downturns. Quality breakdown | Piotroski financial health score remains at 8 or above over the next four reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterMining companies can show excellent balance sheet metrics at commodity cycle peaks that deteriorate rapidly when metals prices fall; the 9 out of 9 Piotroski score may reflect current-cycle tailwinds rather than structural quality. | ||
At $66.16, Teck trades approximately 38.6% above its analyst consensus target — a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 3.3 — meaning the current stock price has moved well beyond what fundamental analysis supports at current commodity price assumptions. Targets | Analyst consensus target rises above $75, more than 13% above the current $66.16 target of approximately $69.73, following continued strong earnings delivery. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMining stocks frequently trade above consensus targets during commodity bull cycles when investors anticipate continued price appreciation; the market may be assigning a higher commodity price scenario than analysts model. | ||
Teck has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 48%, including beats of 56%, 43%, 34%, and 60% — demonstrating that management is consistently delivering results well ahead of what analysts model. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 20% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the strong beat cadence. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst estimates for mining companies are notoriously difficult to model due to commodity price sensitivity; large beat percentages can reflect poor analyst modeling rather than true operational outperformance, making the streak less predictive. | ||
Teck Resources grew revenue 72% year-over-year, achieving a maximum growth score of 10 out of 10 — driven by strong commodity pricing and production volumes in copper and zinc — placing it as the top growth name in the industrial metals and mining peer group.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining above-average growth relative to peers.
CounterMining revenue growth at 72% is heavily commodity-price dependent and can reverse sharply; a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 4.93 at the current stock price suggests the market is not assigning full value to cyclical earnings, reflecting justified skepticism about growth sustainability.
Teck carries a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum achievable — reflecting excellent balance sheet strength, profitability metrics, and operating efficiency, which provides resilience during commodity price downturns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski financial health score remains at 8 or above over the next four reported periods.
CounterMining companies can show excellent balance sheet metrics at commodity cycle peaks that deteriorate rapidly when metals prices fall; the 9 out of 9 Piotroski score may reflect current-cycle tailwinds rather than structural quality.
At $66.16, Teck trades approximately 38.6% above its analyst consensus target — a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 3.3 — meaning the current stock price has moved well beyond what fundamental analysis supports at current commodity price assumptions.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $75, more than 13% above the current $66.16 target of approximately $69.73, following continued strong earnings delivery.
CounterMining stocks frequently trade above consensus targets during commodity bull cycles when investors anticipate continued price appreciation; the market may be assigning a higher commodity price scenario than analysts model.
Teck has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 48%, including beats of 56%, 43%, 34%, and 60% — demonstrating that management is consistently delivering results well ahead of what analysts model.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 20% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the strong beat cadence.
CounterAnalyst estimates for mining companies are notoriously difficult to model due to commodity price sensitivity; large beat percentages can reflect poor analyst modeling rather than true operational outperformance, making the streak less predictive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 78% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.46
Upside
-20.9%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.65>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.4, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Sentiment at 5.4, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Massive Revenue Growth Cycle
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter, indicating the commodity-driven growth cycle is decelerating toward normalization.
- P2Perfect Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski financial health score falls below 7 in any reported period, indicating balance sheet deterioration from commodity price pressure.
- P3Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current strong beat streak.
- P4Price Far Above Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $75, more than 13% above the current $66.16, further widening the premium above analyst targets beyond 50%.