Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
TCMD · Why this verdict
Why Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tactile Systems is a $0.5B medical-device maker with a strong earnings record, a 9/9 Piotroski score and 35.4% upside to the analyst target, but 84% of revenue comes from lymphedema products and the stock sits in a downtrend with 13% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, including 0.36 vs 0.17 estimated in August 2026, an average surprise of 74.4%. Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating consensus, including the report due 2026-11-02. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats come off low estimates, and the May 2026 quarter shows no reported actual, so the record rests on partial data. | ||
Analysts see 59% upside, and the $32.02 take-profit target is 35.4% above the $23.64 price, with a forward P/E of 16.2x and a PEG of 0.11. Sentiment breakdown | Price should move toward $32.02 over 12 months as earnings growth is delivered. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a downtrend below the 200-day average is currently working against the stock. | ||
Lymphedema products make up 84.0% of revenue and supply depends on single-source component suppliers, with 3 high-severity concentration risks flagged. Bear case | Lymphedema share of revenue should stay near 84% or fall as other products grow, with no supply disruption. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in a core product with recurring demand has supported the strong earnings record, so it is not necessarily a near-term problem. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, but earnings quality shows a warning with FCF/NI at 58% and a Rule of 40 reading of 13, which fails. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should rise above 80% and the Rule of 40 reading should improve above 20 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow cash conversion can signal that reported earnings are not fully backed by cash, and growth plus margin is below the usual benchmark. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 3.1% over 30 days, short interest is 13%, and implied volatility is 86%, although rising on-balance volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should stay above 5.5 over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConfirmed downtrends tend to persist, and one modest insider sale of $323,243 was recorded in the last 90 days. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, including 0.36 vs 0.17 estimated in August 2026, an average surprise of 74.4%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating consensus, including the report due 2026-11-02.
CounterBeats come off low estimates, and the May 2026 quarter shows no reported actual, so the record rests on partial data.
Analysts see 59% upside, and the $32.02 take-profit target is 35.4% above the $23.64 price, with a forward P/E of 16.2x and a PEG of 0.11.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward $32.02 over 12 months as earnings growth is delivered.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a downtrend below the 200-day average is currently working against the stock.
Lymphedema products make up 84.0% of revenue and supply depends on single-source component suppliers, with 3 high-severity concentration risks flagged.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Lymphedema share of revenue should stay near 84% or fall as other products grow, with no supply disruption.
CounterConcentration in a core product with recurring demand has supported the strong earnings record, so it is not necessarily a near-term problem.
The Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, but earnings quality shows a warning with FCF/NI at 58% and a Rule of 40 reading of 13, which fails.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should rise above 80% and the Rule of 40 reading should improve above 20 over 12 months.
CounterLow cash conversion can signal that reported earnings are not fully backed by cash, and growth plus margin is below the usual benchmark.
Price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 3.1% over 30 days, short interest is 13%, and implied volatility is 86%, although rising on-balance volume shows accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should stay above 5.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterConfirmed downtrends tend to persist, and one modest insider sale of $323,243 was recorded in the last 90 days.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 58% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 13 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $323,243 (0.060% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.7 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.52
Upside
+33.9%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 1.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Growth at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4, and Insider at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in the 2026-11-02 report and in at least 1 of the next 2 quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside And Value
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $26 from the current $32.02.
- P3Product Concentration Risk
Trip ifLymphedema products exceed 90% of revenue, or a single-source supplier disruption lasts more than 1 quarter.
- P4Earnings Quality Mixed
Trip ifFCF/NI falls below 40% from the current 58%.
- P5Downtrend High Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below the $22.34 stop-loss, with momentum score under 5.0 from the current 6.2.