Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
TCMD · Why this verdict
Why Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bear case flags a thin upside margin of just 7.1% against 15% downside, which failed the engine's asymmetry gate at 0.5 versus the 1.5 threshold. Bear case | The asymmetry ratio should climb back above the 1.5 gate threshold as upside widens relative to downside over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum gate passed comfortably at 7.9 against the 5.5 threshold, with price still accumulating volume above its 200-day moving average. | ||
Growth notes cite strong 23% year-over-year growth, backed by excellent cash conversion of 165% free cash flow to net income and a strong Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay near or above 20% YoY and free cash flow conversion should remain strongly positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.0 subtracts 1.5 points in the bear case, suggesting balance-sheet risk could pressure the ability to sustain this growth. | ||
Momentum notes flag the stock as overbought with an RSI of 81, while options notes show price trading above the $22 max-pain level with implied volatility at 64%. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool back toward a neutral 50-60 range without a sharp price reversal over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overbought reading is paired with rising on-balance volume, a sign that sustained buying pressure — not just price extension — is driving the move. | ||
Insiders sold $113,404 in the trailing 90 days with zero offsetting purchases, a bearish signal that compounds the bear case's leverage penalty for a 7.0 debt-to-equity ratio. Insider | Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or positive and the debt-to-equity ratio should decline over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is flagged as low materiality at just 0.016% of market cap, limiting its informational weight. | ||
Key risks flag high short interest at 10% alongside elevated risk factors overall, contributing to the action note's call to consider reducing the position. Key risks | Short interest should decline meaningfully from 10% and the elevated risk-factor flags should clear over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overall risk score of 4.0 suggests these are moderate rather than extreme concerns relative to the engine's typical range. | ||
The bear case flags a thin upside margin of just 7.1% against 15% downside, which failed the engine's asymmetry gate at 0.5 versus the 1.5 threshold.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should climb back above the 1.5 gate threshold as upside widens relative to downside over the next 12 months.
CounterThe momentum gate passed comfortably at 7.9 against the 5.5 threshold, with price still accumulating volume above its 200-day moving average.
Growth notes cite strong 23% year-over-year growth, backed by excellent cash conversion of 165% free cash flow to net income and a strong Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay near or above 20% YoY and free cash flow conversion should remain strongly positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.0 subtracts 1.5 points in the bear case, suggesting balance-sheet risk could pressure the ability to sustain this growth.
Momentum notes flag the stock as overbought with an RSI of 81, while options notes show price trading above the $22 max-pain level with implied volatility at 64%.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool back toward a neutral 50-60 range without a sharp price reversal over the next few months.
CounterThe overbought reading is paired with rising on-balance volume, a sign that sustained buying pressure — not just price extension — is driving the move.
Insiders sold $113,404 in the trailing 90 days with zero offsetting purchases, a bearish signal that compounds the bear case's leverage penalty for a 7.0 debt-to-equity ratio.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or positive and the debt-to-equity ratio should decline over the next 12 months.
CounterThe selling is flagged as low materiality at just 0.016% of market cap, limiting its informational weight.
Key risks flag high short interest at 10% alongside elevated risk factors overall, contributing to the action note's call to consider reducing the position.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully from 10% and the elevated risk-factor flags should clear over the next 12 months.
CounterThe overall risk score of 4.0 suggests these are moderate rather than extreme concerns relative to the engine's typical range.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tactile Systems Technology shows strong growth, cash conversion, and momentum, but a thin upside margin that failed the engine's asymmetry gate, an overbought technical read, leverage, and insider selling lead the engine to recommend reducing the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 165% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $113,404 (0.016% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 0.6 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.36
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.36 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Catalyst at 7.9, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth And Cash Conversion
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 23%.
- P2Thin Upside Failed Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.47.
- P3Overbought Momentum Above Max Pain
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 within 2 months from the current overbought reading of 81.
- P4Insider Selling With Leverage
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $300,000 in a rolling 90-day window, worsening from the current -$113,404.
- P5Elevated Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% of float from the current 10%.