Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
- ▸Attractively valued
TCBX · Why this verdict
Why Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Third Coast trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.72, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x and PEG should remain under 1.0, or the multiple should re-rate upward toward peer averages over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank valuations can stay persistently low due to credit-risk concerns and rate sensitivity, so a low PEG alone doesn't guarantee re-rating. | ||
The stock carries a catalyst edge tied to an upcoming earnings report in 18 days, backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak in the trailing four quarters. Earnings | The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters at the next report on 2026-07-22, with a positive surprise percentage. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one recent miss came in at -4.69% surprise in the most recent quarter, which could indicate the beat streak is already decelerating. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving just -9.2% implied upside per the V8 signal despite otherwise positive fundamentals. Warnings | A new, higher analyst price target would need to be issued to justify meaningful further upside beyond 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued earnings beats could prompt analysts to raise targets, which would restore upside room even without further price appreciation. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -1.7, meaning the downside risk of 5.3% currently outweighs the expected upside case. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.5, for the position to clear the engine's risk/reward bar. | →Stable |
| CounterRising momentum, including volume accumulation and price above the 200-day moving average, could push the stock higher even while the static asymmetry calculation stays negative. | ||
Third Coast trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.72, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x and PEG should remain under 1.0, or the multiple should re-rate upward toward peer averages over 12 months.
CounterRegional bank valuations can stay persistently low due to credit-risk concerns and rate sensitivity, so a low PEG alone doesn't guarantee re-rating.
The stock carries a catalyst edge tied to an upcoming earnings report in 18 days, backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak in the trailing four quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters at the next report on 2026-07-22, with a positive surprise percentage.
CounterThe one recent miss came in at -4.69% surprise in the most recent quarter, which could indicate the beat streak is already decelerating.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving just -9.2% implied upside per the V8 signal despite otherwise positive fundamentals.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst price target would need to be issued to justify meaningful further upside beyond 12 months.
CounterContinued earnings beats could prompt analysts to raise targets, which would restore upside room even without further price appreciation.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -1.7, meaning the downside risk of 5.3% currently outweighs the expected upside case.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.5, for the position to clear the engine's risk/reward bar.
CounterRising momentum, including volume accumulation and price above the 200-day moving average, could push the stock higher even while the static asymmetry calculation stays negative.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Third Coast Bancshares combines an attractive valuation and a strong earnings beat streak heading into its next report, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and the engine's risk/reward math currently reads unfavorable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $100,728 (0.015% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.12
Upside
-6.5%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Quality at 5.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x or PEG ratio exceeds 1.5.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifCompany posts a miss with surprise below 0% at the 2026-07-22 report, breaking the beat streak.
- P3Analyst Target Limited Upside
Trip ifA new analyst price target lifts implied upside above 15%.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Gate Failure
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -1.7.