Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
TATT · Why this verdict
Why TAT Technologies (TATT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock carries a leverage penalty of -1.5 points in the engine's scoring due to a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.3. Bear case | D/E should decline meaningfully below 5.0 over the next 12 months for the leverage penalty to lift. | →Stable |
| CounterA D/E ratio this extreme could reflect industry-specific financing structures, such as aircraft-component leasing arrangements, rather than genuine balance-sheet distress. | ||
The company has missed earnings in all 3 of its last reported quarters with zero beats, and an average surprise of -9.52%. Bear case | The company should post at least 1 beat over the next 4 quarters, with the average surprise turning positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3-quarter miss streak with a persistently negative average surprise suggests systematic estimate or execution problems rather than a one-off stumble. | ||
News sentiment is negative at -0.67, a headwind the engine explicitly flags in the bear case. Bear case | News sentiment should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months if the narrative around the company improves. | →Stable |
| CounterNews sentiment scores can be driven by a small number of negative articles and may not reflect the company's actual operating trajectory. | ||
Despite the concerns above, the stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.25 against a forward P/E of 20.4x, a combination the engine's value notes flag as favorable relative to earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months if earnings growth resumes. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG built on an earnings-growth estimate is unreliable when the company is also declining in revenue and missing earnings consistently, since the growth denominator itself is in question. | ||
Insider signal is BEARISH, with 11,250 net shares sold over the trailing 90 days across 3 sell transactions and zero buys. Insider | The insider signal should shift toward NEUTRAL or BULLISH if insider buying emerges over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA modest 11,250-share sale across 3 transactions is a small absolute amount that may not carry a strong information signal for a company of this size. | ||
The stock carries a leverage penalty of -1.5 points in the engine's scoring due to a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.3.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- D/E should decline meaningfully below 5.0 over the next 12 months for the leverage penalty to lift.
CounterA D/E ratio this extreme could reflect industry-specific financing structures, such as aircraft-component leasing arrangements, rather than genuine balance-sheet distress.
The company has missed earnings in all 3 of its last reported quarters with zero beats, and an average surprise of -9.52%.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should post at least 1 beat over the next 4 quarters, with the average surprise turning positive.
CounterA 3-quarter miss streak with a persistently negative average surprise suggests systematic estimate or execution problems rather than a one-off stumble.
News sentiment is negative at -0.67, a headwind the engine explicitly flags in the bear case.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- News sentiment should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months if the narrative around the company improves.
CounterNews sentiment scores can be driven by a small number of negative articles and may not reflect the company's actual operating trajectory.
Despite the concerns above, the stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.25 against a forward P/E of 20.4x, a combination the engine's value notes flag as favorable relative to earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months if earnings growth resumes.
CounterA low PEG built on an earnings-growth estimate is unreliable when the company is also declining in revenue and missing earnings consistently, since the growth denominator itself is in question.
Insider signal is BEARISH, with 11,250 net shares sold over the trailing 90 days across 3 sell transactions and zero buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift toward NEUTRAL or BULLISH if insider buying emerges over the next 12 months.
CounterA modest 11,250-share sale across 3 transactions is a small absolute amount that may not carry a strong information signal for a company of this size.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TAT Technologies carries a high leverage penalty, a streak of consecutive earnings misses, and negative news sentiment, though the stock still screens cheap on a PEG basis — a combination that keeps the engine's action note pointed toward reducing exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 3.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 37% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $478,175 (0.077% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.59
Upside
+20.4%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.59 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.3, Sentiment at 6.3, and Growth at 6.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Catalyst at 2.5, and Insider at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Leverage Penalty
Trip ifD/E stays above 8.0 for 2 more consecutive quarters, or the leverage penalty widens beyond -1.5.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company posts a 4th consecutive miss, or the average surprise stays below -10%.
- P3Negative News Sentiment
Trip ifNews sentiment stays below -0.5 for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Cheap Peg Despite Concerns
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 or forward P/E exceeds 30x without a matching share price increase.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 50,000 shares in a rolling 90-day window, more than 4x the current pace.