Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
STTK · Why this verdict
Why Shattuck Labs (STTK) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts see 110% upside, with a take-profit target of $12.90 against a current price of $7.05, though light analyst coverage dampens the signal. Sentiment breakdown | Price should close a meaningful share of the gap toward the $12.90 analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage explicitly dampens the reliability of the 110% upside estimate, and it may reflect just one or two analysts' views. | ||
The engine's asymmetry ratio is 5.54, one of the widest risk/reward setups screened, with 83% upside against 15% downside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should stay above 3.0 as the favorable risk/reward persists. | →Stable |
| CounterThe position is flagged as speculative in a binary biotechnology industry, where a single clinical or regulatory event could erase the current asymmetry. | ||
Quality sits far below the engine's floor at 1.5 versus a 4.0 minimum, with quality notes citing extreme cash burn at -2242% of revenue and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9. Bear case | FCF as a percent of revenue should improve materially over the next several quarters as cash burn narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buying, albeit low materiality, at $37,456 suggests some insider confidence despite the weak fundamental quality score. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 78 while trading above its 200-day moving average and showing rising volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool to the 50-60 range as the overbought condition resolves without a sharp price reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought readings in strong uptrends can persist for extended periods, so RSI alone may not be a reliable signal of an imminent pullback. | ||
Analysts see 110% upside, with a take-profit target of $12.90 against a current price of $7.05, though light analyst coverage dampens the signal.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close a meaningful share of the gap toward the $12.90 analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterLight analyst coverage explicitly dampens the reliability of the 110% upside estimate, and it may reflect just one or two analysts' views.
The engine's asymmetry ratio is 5.54, one of the widest risk/reward setups screened, with 83% upside against 15% downside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay above 3.0 as the favorable risk/reward persists.
CounterThe position is flagged as speculative in a binary biotechnology industry, where a single clinical or regulatory event could erase the current asymmetry.
Quality sits far below the engine's floor at 1.5 versus a 4.0 minimum, with quality notes citing extreme cash burn at -2242% of revenue and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- FCF as a percent of revenue should improve materially over the next several quarters as cash burn narrows.
CounterInsider buying, albeit low materiality, at $37,456 suggests some insider confidence despite the weak fundamental quality score.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 78 while trading above its 200-day moving average and showing rising volume accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool to the 50-60 range as the overbought condition resolves without a sharp price reversal.
CounterOverbought readings in strong uptrends can persist for extended periods, so RSI alone may not be a reliable signal of an imminent pullback.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Shattuck Labs shows a wide risk/reward asymmetry and large analyst-implied upside, but quality sits far below the engine's floor on extreme cash burn and the stock is technically overbought.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2242% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 6.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 116%
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $37,456 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $4
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.84
Upside
+87.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 8.0, and Insider at 7.8; the weakest are Quality at 2.0, Technical at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside estimate falls below 40% from the current 110%.
- P2Wide Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 2.0, down from the current 5.54 reading.
- P3Quality Floor Extreme Cash Burn
Trip ifFCF as a percent of revenue stays below -500% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Overbought Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 within 2 months, reversing the overbought condition.