Value
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 47.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
- ▸Attractively valued
SSYS · Why this verdict
Why Stratasys (SSYS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Shares trade at an attractive PEG of 0.40 and are flagged by value scoring as attractively valued despite a 45.2x forward P/E. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 as earnings estimates hold up, supporting a re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterValue screening confidence is only 0.67, and the very low PEG could reflect unstable, low-base earnings estimates rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
The stock is in a falling-knife setup — a death cross, price below all major moving averages, RSI at 29 and bearish MACD — reflecting a confirmed downtrend. Chart pattern detection | RSI should climb back above 40 and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average within two quarters for the downtrend to be considered broken. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum notes flag volume accumulation (rising OBV), a divergence that sometimes precedes a bottoming process even in a falling-knife setup. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 31.00 and high implied volatility of 69% point to heavy hedging or bearish positioning in the options market. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as directional uncertainty subsides. | →Stable |
| CounterTotal call and put open interest are both reported as effectively zero, so the 31.00 ratio may reflect a handful of illiquid contracts rather than broad market conviction. | ||
Analysts see 52% upside versus the current price, with a take-profit target of $10.48 against a current price of $8.135. Sentiment breakdown | Price should close a meaningful share of the gap toward the $10.48 analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining at -2%, undercutting the case for a sustained re-rating even if the price target implies substantial upside. | ||
Shares trade at an attractive PEG of 0.40 and are flagged by value scoring as attractively valued despite a 45.2x forward P/E.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 as earnings estimates hold up, supporting a re-rating.
CounterValue screening confidence is only 0.67, and the very low PEG could reflect unstable, low-base earnings estimates rather than a genuine bargain.
The stock is in a falling-knife setup — a death cross, price below all major moving averages, RSI at 29 and bearish MACD — reflecting a confirmed downtrend.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- RSI should climb back above 40 and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average within two quarters for the downtrend to be considered broken.
CounterMomentum notes flag volume accumulation (rising OBV), a divergence that sometimes precedes a bottoming process even in a falling-knife setup.
An elevated put/call ratio of 31.00 and high implied volatility of 69% point to heavy hedging or bearish positioning in the options market.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as directional uncertainty subsides.
CounterTotal call and put open interest are both reported as effectively zero, so the 31.00 ratio may reflect a handful of illiquid contracts rather than broad market conviction.
Analysts see 52% upside versus the current price, with a take-profit target of $10.48 against a current price of $8.135.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close a meaningful share of the gap toward the $10.48 analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue is declining at -2%, undercutting the case for a sustained re-rating even if the price target implies substantial upside.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stratasys trades at an attractive PEG despite a confirmed downtrend and elevated options skew, with analysts pointing to substantial upside that has yet to materialize against declining revenue.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 3.8%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 4.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 3.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 46.50
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.03
Upside
+25.1%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.92>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Quality at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Peg Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.40.
- P2Falling Knife Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for 2 consecutive months, extending the downtrend.
- P3Elevated Options Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 20 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P4Analyst Target Upside Gap
Trip ifAnalyst upside estimate falls below 20% from the current 52%.