Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.57
- ▸Attractively valued
SPFI · Why this verdict
Why South Plains Financial (SPFI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and reports again in 11 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst. Catalyst breakdown | The beat rate should hold at 3-of-4 or better through the upcoming report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one recent miss shows the beat streak isn't perfect, and a second miss so soon would signal a deteriorating trend rather than noise. | ||
The bank trades at a 10.3x forward P/E with a 0.57 PEG ratio, 29% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | The valuation discount should narrow toward peer multiples absent a sector-wide regional bank de-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks can trade at persistent discounts due to rate and credit-cycle concerns unrelated to company-specific quality. | ||
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -0.45x since the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher following the upcoming earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings beat could prompt analysts to raise targets, restoring positive asymmetry regardless of the current reading. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with $1,204,340 in net sales against only 1 buy transaction, a bearish signal. Insider | Insider selling intensity should decline, or buying should resume, over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales worth 0.148% of market cap remain a minor severity per the engine's own classification and may reflect routine diversification. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout above all major moving averages with a bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The breakout should hold with price remaining above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterBreakouts occurring just before an earnings report carry elevated event risk that can quickly reverse the technical picture. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and reports again in 11 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at 3-of-4 or better through the upcoming report.
CounterThe one recent miss shows the beat streak isn't perfect, and a second miss so soon would signal a deteriorating trend rather than noise.
The bank trades at a 10.3x forward P/E with a 0.57 PEG ratio, 29% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow toward peer multiples absent a sector-wide regional bank de-rating.
CounterRegional banks can trade at persistent discounts due to rate and credit-cycle concerns unrelated to company-specific quality.
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -0.45x since the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher following the upcoming earnings report.
CounterA strong earnings beat could prompt analysts to raise targets, restoring positive asymmetry regardless of the current reading.
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with $1,204,340 in net sales against only 1 buy transaction, a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling intensity should decline, or buying should resume, over the next quarter.
CounterInsider sales worth 0.148% of market cap remain a minor severity per the engine's own classification and may reflect routine diversification.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout above all major moving averages with a bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The breakout should hold with price remaining above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages over the next quarter.
CounterBreakouts occurring just before an earnings report carry elevated event risk that can quickly reverse the technical picture.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
South Plains Financial enters its earnings report on a technical breakout and attractive valuation, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and faces recent insider selling ahead of the print.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.2 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,204,340 (0.148% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-0.6%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 8d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Technical at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Peer rank at 5.3, and Insider at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Upcoming Earnings Catalyst Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the next earnings report, dropping the beat rate below 3 of the last 5 quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Quality
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x without an improvement in the Piotroski F-Score.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.
- P4Insider Selling Ahead Of Earnings
Trip ifInsider buying exceeds $500,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bearish signal.
- P5Golden Cross Technical Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days, ending the current breakout.