Value
7.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
SOPH · Why this verdict
Why SOPHiA GENETICS (SOPH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Put/call ratio is elevated at 4.00 alongside 116% implied volatility, signaling the market is pricing in a high probability of a large move. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio should normalize if hedging pressure eases. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated implied volatility ahead of the earnings date may simply reflect normal pre-earnings options pricing rather than a bearish signal. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with a bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | Price should extend the breakout, holding above the 200-day moving average over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum score itself is only 5.3, just below the engine's preferred threshold, a soft warning that the breakout lacks full confirmation. | ||
The company burns cash at -30% of revenue and fails the Rule of 40 test at -8, despite 22% year-over-year revenue growth. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should turn positive within 12 months if growth and margin trends combine favorably. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow burn of 30% of revenue for a growth-stage diagnostics company may be an intentional investment phase rather than a red flag. | ||
Insiders have been heavily net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with 67 sell transactions totaling $1,113,087 in net value, a bearish signal the engine flags as moderate severity. Insider | Insider selling intensity should decline, with net value moving toward neutral or positive over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterA high transaction count with modest total value relative to market cap could reflect routine equity-compensation vesting sales rather than a negative view. | ||
The engine calculates a 1.81x asymmetry ratio with 27.1% upside potential against a stop-defined downside. Reward-to-risk math | Price should progress toward the $6.80 take-profit target over the next 12 months if the setup resolves favorably. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy insider selling and cash burn concerns could cap upside well before the take-profit target is reached. | ||
Put/call ratio is elevated at 4.00 alongside 116% implied volatility, signaling the market is pricing in a high probability of a large move.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio should normalize if hedging pressure eases.
CounterElevated implied volatility ahead of the earnings date may simply reflect normal pre-earnings options pricing rather than a bearish signal.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with a bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should extend the breakout, holding above the 200-day moving average over the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe momentum score itself is only 5.3, just below the engine's preferred threshold, a soft warning that the breakout lacks full confirmation.
The company burns cash at -30% of revenue and fails the Rule of 40 test at -8, despite 22% year-over-year revenue growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should turn positive within 12 months if growth and margin trends combine favorably.
CounterFree cash flow burn of 30% of revenue for a growth-stage diagnostics company may be an intentional investment phase rather than a red flag.
Insiders have been heavily net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with 67 sell transactions totaling $1,113,087 in net value, a bearish signal the engine flags as moderate severity.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling intensity should decline, with net value moving toward neutral or positive over the next quarter.
CounterA high transaction count with modest total value relative to market cap could reflect routine equity-compensation vesting sales rather than a negative view.
The engine calculates a 1.81x asymmetry ratio with 27.1% upside potential against a stop-defined downside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Price should progress toward the $6.80 take-profit target over the next 12 months if the setup resolves favorably.
CounterHeavy insider selling and cash burn concerns could cap upside well before the take-profit target is reached.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SOPHiA GENETICS shows a confirmed technical breakout and favorable risk/reward asymmetry, but persistent cash burn, a Rule of 40 failure, and heavy insider selling activity weigh against the bullish technical setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -30% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -8 (fail)
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.1 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $827,787 (0.185% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸High IV: 110%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.18%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
1.56
Upside
+23.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Value at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.8, Quality at 3.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Breakout Golden Cross
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days, ending the current breakout.
- P2Cash Burn Rule Of 40 Failure
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below -20, worsening from the current -8 reading.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider buying exceeds $500,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bearish signal.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0, reversing the current elevated hedging posture.
- P5Favorable Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice falls below the $4.98 stop-loss, invalidating the 1.81x asymmetry setup.