Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
SMBK · Why this verdict
Why SmartFinancial (SMBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 16 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next report if execution continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for expectations, increasing the risk of a market-jarring deceleration in surprise magnitude. | ||
The bank trades at an 11.3x forward P/E with a 0.54 PEG ratio, 27% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | The valuation multiple should re-rate closer to peer averages within 12 months as quality is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks can trade at a persistent discount due to sector-wide rate and credit-cycle concerns. | ||
The put/call ratio is extremely elevated at 19.64, alongside 72% implied volatility, signaling unusual defensive positioning despite bullish price action. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize closer to a balanced level if hedging pressure eases. | →Stable |
| CounterThis could reflect thin options volume or open interest distorting the ratio rather than genuine bearish positioning. | ||
The engine calculates a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.98x since the analyst target has been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again if the target is revised higher or the stock pulls back. | →Stable |
| CounterAn earnings catalyst in 16 days could push price past the current target regardless of the calculated asymmetry. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers over the trailing 90 days, with $230,752 in net purchases across 3 buys versus 2 sells, a bullish signal. Insider | Insider buying should continue or accelerate if management conviction is well founded. | →Stable |
| CounterThe buying represents only 0.029% of market cap and may not be a strong enough signal on its own. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 16 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next report if execution continues.
CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for expectations, increasing the risk of a market-jarring deceleration in surprise magnitude.
The bank trades at an 11.3x forward P/E with a 0.54 PEG ratio, 27% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation multiple should re-rate closer to peer averages within 12 months as quality is recognized.
CounterRegional banks can trade at a persistent discount due to sector-wide rate and credit-cycle concerns.
The put/call ratio is extremely elevated at 19.64, alongside 72% implied volatility, signaling unusual defensive positioning despite bullish price action.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize closer to a balanced level if hedging pressure eases.
CounterThis could reflect thin options volume or open interest distorting the ratio rather than genuine bearish positioning.
The engine calculates a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.98x since the analyst target has been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again if the target is revised higher or the stock pulls back.
CounterAn earnings catalyst in 16 days could push price past the current target regardless of the calculated asymmetry.
Insiders have been net buyers over the trailing 90 days, with $230,752 in net purchases across 3 buys versus 2 sells, a bullish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or accelerate if management conviction is well founded.
CounterThe buying represents only 0.029% of market cap and may not be a strong enough signal on its own.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SmartFinancial pairs a perfect earnings beat streak, attractive valuation, and insider buying with unusually heavy options hedging and a risk/reward setup that already reflects the analyst target being reached.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 5.6 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $230,752 (0.029% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.7 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 19.64
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.44
Upside
-10.3%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Peer rank at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Insider at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Momentum at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Near Term Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the next earnings report, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Quality
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x without an improvement in the Piotroski F-Score.
- P3Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0, reversing the current elevated hedging posture.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.
- P5Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider sell value exceeds $200,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bullish signal.