Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
SMBC · Why this verdict
Why Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 18 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next report if execution continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for expectations, and any deceleration in surprise magnitude could be read negatively even from a technical beat. | ||
The bank trades at an 11.3x forward P/E with a 0.74 PEG ratio, strong 36% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | The valuation discount should narrow as the market recognizes the quality profile, absent a broader regional-bank de-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks can remain cheap for extended periods due to sector-wide credit or rate-sensitivity concerns unrelated to company-specific quality. | ||
The engine calculates negative risk/reward asymmetry at -1.46x because the analyst price target has already been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again only if the analyst target is revised higher or the stock pulls back to a more favorable entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock with a strong earnings catalyst and technical breakout can continue advancing well beyond a static analyst target. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout above all major moving averages but sits only 3.1% from its 52-week high, which the engine flags as limiting further near-term upside. Bear case | The stock should make a new 52-week high within the next quarter if the breakout has genuine follow-through. | →Stable |
| CounterProximity to a 52-week high often acts as psychological resistance, increasing the odds of a stall or pullback. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with $316,309 in net sales and zero purchases, which the engine classifies as a bearish signal. Insider | The insider signal should turn neutral or bullish if management resumes buying at current price levels. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling representing 0.038% of market cap is modest and could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative fundamental view. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 18 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next report if execution continues.
CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for expectations, and any deceleration in surprise magnitude could be read negatively even from a technical beat.
The bank trades at an 11.3x forward P/E with a 0.74 PEG ratio, strong 36% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow as the market recognizes the quality profile, absent a broader regional-bank de-rating.
CounterRegional banks can remain cheap for extended periods due to sector-wide credit or rate-sensitivity concerns unrelated to company-specific quality.
The engine calculates negative risk/reward asymmetry at -1.46x because the analyst price target has already been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again only if the analyst target is revised higher or the stock pulls back to a more favorable entry.
CounterA stock with a strong earnings catalyst and technical breakout can continue advancing well beyond a static analyst target.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout above all major moving averages but sits only 3.1% from its 52-week high, which the engine flags as limiting further near-term upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The stock should make a new 52-week high within the next quarter if the breakout has genuine follow-through.
CounterProximity to a 52-week high often acts as psychological resistance, increasing the odds of a stall or pullback.
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with $316,309 in net sales and zero purchases, which the engine classifies as a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should turn neutral or bullish if management resumes buying at current price levels.
CounterInsider selling representing 0.038% of market cap is modest and could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative fundamental view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Southern Missouri Bancorp combines a perfect earnings beat streak and attractive valuation with a technical breakout, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and faces resistance near 52-week highs alongside modest insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $316,309 (0.038% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.01
Upside
-13.4%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.2; weakest: Momentum at 3.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Growth at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Near Term Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the next earnings report, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Quality
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x without a corresponding improvement in the Piotroski F-Score.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.
- P4Breakout Near 52 Week High
Trip ifPrice exceeds the prior 52-week high by more than 1%.
- P5Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider buying exceeds $300,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bearish signal.