Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.41
- ▸Attractively valued
SMBC · Why this verdict
Why Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Southern Missouri Bancorp combines a perfect earnings beat streak and attractive valuation with a technical breakout, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and faces resistance near 52-week highs alongside modest insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 18 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next report if execution continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for expectations, and any deceleration in surprise magnitude could be read negatively even from a technical beat. | ||
The bank trades at an 11.3x forward P/E with a 0.74 PEG ratio, strong 36% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | The valuation discount should narrow as the market recognizes the quality profile, absent a broader regional-bank de-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks can remain cheap for extended periods due to sector-wide credit or rate-sensitivity concerns unrelated to company-specific quality. | ||
The engine calculates negative risk/reward asymmetry at -1.46x because the analyst price target has already been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again only if the analyst target is revised higher or the stock pulls back to a more favorable entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock with a strong earnings catalyst and technical breakout can continue advancing well beyond a static analyst target. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout above all major moving averages but sits only 3.1% from its 52-week high, which the engine flags as limiting further near-term upside. Bear case | The stock should make a new 52-week high within the next quarter if the breakout has genuine follow-through. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterProximity to a 52-week high often acts as psychological resistance, increasing the odds of a stall or pullback. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with $316,309 in net sales and zero purchases, which the engine classifies as a bearish signal. Insider | The insider signal should turn neutral or bullish if management resumes buying at current price levels. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling representing 0.038% of market cap is modest and could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative fundamental view. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 18 days, which the engine flags as a near-term catalyst.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next report if execution continues.
CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for expectations, and any deceleration in surprise magnitude could be read negatively even from a technical beat.
The bank trades at an 11.3x forward P/E with a 0.74 PEG ratio, strong 36% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow as the market recognizes the quality profile, absent a broader regional-bank de-rating.
CounterRegional banks can remain cheap for extended periods due to sector-wide credit or rate-sensitivity concerns unrelated to company-specific quality.
The engine calculates negative risk/reward asymmetry at -1.46x because the analyst price target has already been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again only if the analyst target is revised higher or the stock pulls back to a more favorable entry.
CounterA stock with a strong earnings catalyst and technical breakout can continue advancing well beyond a static analyst target.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout above all major moving averages but sits only 3.1% from its 52-week high, which the engine flags as limiting further near-term upside.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The stock should make a new 52-week high within the next quarter if the breakout has genuine follow-through.
CounterProximity to a 52-week high often acts as psychological resistance, increasing the odds of a stall or pullback.
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with $316,309 in net sales and zero purchases, which the engine classifies as a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should turn neutral or bullish if management resumes buying at current price levels.
CounterInsider selling representing 0.038% of market cap is modest and could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative fundamental view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,340,150 (0.169% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -6.8% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.17%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-1.02
Upside
-6.6%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Momentum at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Near Term Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the next earnings report, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Quality
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x without a corresponding improvement in the Piotroski F-Score.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.
- P4Breakout Near 52 Week High
Trip ifPrice exceeds the prior 52-week high by more than 1%.
- P5Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider buying exceeds $300,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bearish signal.