Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.80
SLB · Why this verdict
Why SLB (SLB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SLB has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats and maintains strong technical support well above its 200-day moving average, but slowing revenue growth, negative price momentum, and thin 4.5% upside headroom leave limited near-term return potential.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SLB has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.9%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline and management's ability to reliably meet or exceed expectations in a capital-intensive services environment. Catalyst breakdown | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters, maintaining an average surprise of at least 2% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAverage surprises of only 2.9% suggest very tight guidance management rather than genuine outperformance, and any oil services demand slowdown could quickly break the streak. | ||
The dividend coverage ratio of 220% suggests the dividend is well-covered by earnings, providing a yield-based floor for income-oriented investors even if price appreciation is limited at current levels. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage remains above 150% and the absolute dividend payment is maintained or increased over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA coverage ratio of 220% against a backdrop of flat earnings growth and weak revenue may narrow quickly if a single quarter misses; oil services dividends historically have been cut in down-cycles. | ||
SLB scores 9.6 on support and resistance technicals and 8.5 overall on the technical dimension, with price sitting on a well-established support zone, suggesting the market structure favors a near-term bounce if demand fundamentals stabilize. Technical breakdown | Price holds above the $51.91 support level and advances toward the $56.12 analyst target, reaching at least $55 within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSupport levels break when the fundamental backdrop deteriorates; if oil services demand weakens due to a decline in exploration capital spending, support zones become resistance on the way down. | ||
Revenue growth is weak and earnings growth is essentially flat, while on-balance volume is declining and price momentum scores only 3.4 out of 10, indicating the market does not currently believe in a near-term earnings acceleration for SLB. Momentum breakdown | Revenue growth recovers to exceed 5% year-over-year and momentum score rises above 5.0 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOil services companies are cyclically driven by upstream capital expenditure budgets; even without organic growth, stable maintenance revenues and the 2.93% average earnings beat can sustain the current valuation. | ||
SLB has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.9%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline and management's ability to reliably meet or exceed expectations in a capital-intensive services environment.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters, maintaining an average surprise of at least 2% over the next 12 months.
CounterAverage surprises of only 2.9% suggest very tight guidance management rather than genuine outperformance, and any oil services demand slowdown could quickly break the streak.
The dividend coverage ratio of 220% suggests the dividend is well-covered by earnings, providing a yield-based floor for income-oriented investors even if price appreciation is limited at current levels.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage remains above 150% and the absolute dividend payment is maintained or increased over the next 12 months.
CounterA coverage ratio of 220% against a backdrop of flat earnings growth and weak revenue may narrow quickly if a single quarter misses; oil services dividends historically have been cut in down-cycles.
SLB scores 9.6 on support and resistance technicals and 8.5 overall on the technical dimension, with price sitting on a well-established support zone, suggesting the market structure favors a near-term bounce if demand fundamentals stabilize.
Tripped↓DeterioratingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the $51.91 support level and advances toward the $56.12 analyst target, reaching at least $55 within 12 months.
CounterSupport levels break when the fundamental backdrop deteriorates; if oil services demand weakens due to a decline in exploration capital spending, support zones become resistance on the way down.
Revenue growth is weak and earnings growth is essentially flat, while on-balance volume is declining and price momentum scores only 3.4 out of 10, indicating the market does not currently believe in a near-term earnings acceleration for SLB.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth recovers to exceed 5% year-over-year and momentum score rises above 5.0 within 12 months.
CounterOil services companies are cyclically driven by upstream capital expenditure budgets; even without organic growth, stable maintenance revenues and the 2.93% average earnings beat can sustain the current valuation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.3x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.37 (n=10)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $5,944,176 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.0%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.36
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:8.6>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.6; weakest: Growth at 1.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.6, Sentiment at 7.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Technical at 2.8, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Technical Support StrongTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $51.91, breaking the identified support level.
- P3Weak Growth Negative Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below 2% for more than 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Dividend Sustainability Yield
Trip ifDividend coverage ratio falls below 120%, indicating payout is at risk.