Value
5.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 3631.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
SKYH · Why this verdict
Why Sky Harbour Group (SKYH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SKYH shows strong top-line growth and earnings beats with a technical buy-the-pullback setup, but the engine's quality score sits below its investable floor on an extreme FCF/NI red flag, and heavy put-side options hedging plus net insider selling argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality score at 2.5 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with earnings-quality notes flagging FCF/NI at -26172%, an extreme red flag despite a strong current ratio. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should normalize toward positive territory as the development-stage REIT matures over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage REIT developers routinely show distorted FCF/NI ratios during heavy capex build-out, which can be a normal phase rather than a red flag. | ||
Growth notes cite 50% YoY revenue growth, and momentum notes describe an uptrend pullback (RSI 40) as a buy opportunity with rising accumulation volume. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay elevated and price should resume its uptrend over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA pullback framed as a buy opportunity can instead be the start of a deeper correction if growth decelerates. | ||
Risk notes flag an elevated put/call ratio of 8.00 and high implied volatility of 96%, with price sitting above the options max-pain level of $9. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio and implied volatility should moderate over the next 12 months as hedging pressure eases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios on thinly-traded options can reflect small absolute volumes rather than broad-based bearish positioning. | ||
Insiders net sold 360,000 shares (a bearish signal) even as institutions are described as accumulating, a divergence in ownership behavior. Insider breakdown | Insider transactions should shift toward net buying or institutional accumulation should continue to outweigh insider selling over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales are frequently tied to diversification or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
SKYH beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 64.4%, reflected in catalyst notes citing strong earnings. Earnings | The earnings-beat streak should continue over the next 12 months, supporting a re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterBeating low-bar estimates repeatedly can reflect management consistently under-promising and over-delivering guidance rather than genuine acceleration in the business. | ||
Quality score at 2.5 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with earnings-quality notes flagging FCF/NI at -26172%, an extreme red flag despite a strong current ratio.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should normalize toward positive territory as the development-stage REIT matures over the next 12 months.
CounterEarly-stage REIT developers routinely show distorted FCF/NI ratios during heavy capex build-out, which can be a normal phase rather than a red flag.
Growth notes cite 50% YoY revenue growth, and momentum notes describe an uptrend pullback (RSI 40) as a buy opportunity with rising accumulation volume.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay elevated and price should resume its uptrend over the next 12 months.
CounterA pullback framed as a buy opportunity can instead be the start of a deeper correction if growth decelerates.
Risk notes flag an elevated put/call ratio of 8.00 and high implied volatility of 96%, with price sitting above the options max-pain level of $9.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio and implied volatility should moderate over the next 12 months as hedging pressure eases.
CounterElevated put/call ratios on thinly-traded options can reflect small absolute volumes rather than broad-based bearish positioning.
Insiders net sold 360,000 shares (a bearish signal) even as institutions are described as accumulating, a divergence in ownership behavior.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should shift toward net buying or institutional accumulation should continue to outweigh insider selling over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider sales are frequently tied to diversification or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a negative view of the business.
SKYH beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 64.4%, reflected in catalyst notes citing strong earnings.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings-beat streak should continue over the next 12 months, supporting a re-rating.
CounterBeating low-bar estimates repeatedly can reflect management consistently under-promising and over-delivering guidance rather than genuine acceleration in the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -26172% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,600,000 (0.441% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 107%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:8.1>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- INSIDER:0.44%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
8.14
Upside
+40.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.30>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 8.14.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 9.0, and Insider at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.2, Quality at 2.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Red Flag Fcf
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.5.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 50%.
- P3Elevated Options Hedging Activity
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 3.0 from the current 8.00.
- P4Insider Selling Despite Institutional Buying
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 1,000,000 shares over a trailing 90-day window, up from the current 360,000.
- P5Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 50% from the current 75% (3 of the last 4 quarters).