Value
5.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 3591.7x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
SKYH · Why this verdict
Why Sky Harbour Group (SKYH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sky Harbour is growing revenue about 50% a year from a small base, but weak business quality, deep cash burn and falling momentum keep it out of reach despite a wide analyst-target gap and an oversold setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is compounding quickly, rising from 6.6M in mid-2025 to 9.9M in the June 2026 quarter, consistent with 50% YoY growth. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the 10.5M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing at least 30% YoY over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth comes from a tiny base and is funded by heavy capital spending, so it may not translate into profit. | ||
Business quality is weak at 2.5 against a 4.0 floor, with a severe cash-burn red flag (FCF/NI of -26172%) and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above the 4.0 floor as net margin and cash conversion improve over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAs a development-stage real-estate business, low quality scores may reflect build-out spending that later turns into stable lease income. | ||
The stock looks oversold (RSI 24) with 51.6% upside to the analyst target against 5.8% downside to the stop, an asymmetry ratio of 8.87. Chart pattern detection | Momentum recovers above the engine's 4.5 bar and price closes part of the gap to the 14.08 target. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and capitulation risk below the 200-day average suggest selling pressure could continue, and the engine still rates sizing AVOID. | ||
Positioning is stretched: a put/call ratio of 4.71, short interest of 12% and implied volatility of 94% signal heavy bearish hedging and speculative risk. Key risks | Put/call ratio normalizes toward 1.5 and implied volatility declines as earnings beats continue. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh put interest can be hedging by existing holders and a short squeeze from 12% short interest could cause a sharp upside move. | ||
Revenue is compounding quickly, rising from 6.6M in mid-2025 to 9.9M in the June 2026 quarter, consistent with 50% YoY growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the 10.5M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing at least 30% YoY over 12 months.
CounterGrowth comes from a tiny base and is funded by heavy capital spending, so it may not translate into profit.
Business quality is weak at 2.5 against a 4.0 floor, with a severe cash-burn red flag (FCF/NI of -26172%) and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above the 4.0 floor as net margin and cash conversion improve over 12 months.
CounterAs a development-stage real-estate business, low quality scores may reflect build-out spending that later turns into stable lease income.
The stock looks oversold (RSI 24) with 51.6% upside to the analyst target against 5.8% downside to the stop, an asymmetry ratio of 8.87.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the engine's 4.5 bar and price closes part of the gap to the 14.08 target.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and capitulation risk below the 200-day average suggest selling pressure could continue, and the engine still rates sizing AVOID.
Positioning is stretched: a put/call ratio of 4.71, short interest of 12% and implied volatility of 94% signal heavy bearish hedging and speculative risk.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes toward 1.5 and implied volatility declines as earnings beats continue.
CounterHigh put interest can be hedging by existing holders and a short squeeze from 12% short interest could cause a sharp upside move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -26172% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 61%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.1 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,460,432 (0.428% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $9
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:0.43%=HEAVY
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
3.86
Upside
+40.4%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 0.43%=HEAVY outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.86.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.7, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.2, Quality at 2.5, and Technical at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Top Line Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Oversold Bounce Wide Target Gap
Trip ifPrice falls below the 8.83 stop-loss level, more than 5% under the current 9.29.
- P4Speculative Positioning And Volatility
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 and short interest drops below 5% of float.