Value
7.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
SIBN · Why this verdict
Why SI-BONE (SIBN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality score of 3.4 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by a failed Rule of 40 test (score of 10, versus the 40 pass threshold) despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should climb toward a passing level over the next 12 months if growth and margin trends improve together. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests underlying balance-sheet and profitability trends are actually healthy, so the quality score may be understating the business's true position. | ||
The V9 panel hard-blocks the setup on a death cross, a technical signal the engine treats as disqualifying regardless of other factors. Engine gate (failed) | The death-cross block should clear as price reclaims key moving averages over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses are lagging indicators and can mark a bottom just as often as they confirm further downside, especially in a name with a strong Piotroski score underneath. | ||
SI-BONE has a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, with an average surprise of 42.59%. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak this long increases the odds of reversion, since the string must eventually break and any miss could trigger an outsized negative reaction given elevated expectations. | ||
Short interest is elevated at 16% of float, which the engine judges as justified given the fundamental and technical picture, alongside implied volatility of 61%. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline below 10% of float over the next 12 months if the technical picture and quality score improve. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest also creates squeeze risk — continued earnings beats could force rapid short covering and a sharp price spike. | ||
Insider signal is BEARISH, with 34,541 net shares sold over the trailing 90 days across 13 sell transactions and zero buys. Insider | The insider signal should shift toward NEUTRAL or BULLISH if insider buying emerges over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter13 separate sell transactions with no buys is a broad-based selling pattern across insiders, which is harder to dismiss as routine diversification than a single large sale. | ||
Quality score of 3.4 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by a failed Rule of 40 test (score of 10, versus the 40 pass threshold) despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should climb toward a passing level over the next 12 months if growth and margin trends improve together.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests underlying balance-sheet and profitability trends are actually healthy, so the quality score may be understating the business's true position.
The V9 panel hard-blocks the setup on a death cross, a technical signal the engine treats as disqualifying regardless of other factors.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death-cross block should clear as price reclaims key moving averages over the next 12 months.
CounterDeath crosses are lagging indicators and can mark a bottom just as often as they confirm further downside, especially in a name with a strong Piotroski score underneath.
SI-BONE has a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, with an average surprise of 42.59%.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterA perfect beat streak this long increases the odds of reversion, since the string must eventually break and any miss could trigger an outsized negative reaction given elevated expectations.
Short interest is elevated at 16% of float, which the engine judges as justified given the fundamental and technical picture, alongside implied volatility of 61%.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 10% of float over the next 12 months if the technical picture and quality score improve.
CounterHigh short interest also creates squeeze risk — continued earnings beats could force rapid short covering and a sharp price spike.
Insider signal is BEARISH, with 34,541 net shares sold over the trailing 90 days across 13 sell transactions and zero buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift toward NEUTRAL or BULLISH if insider buying emerges over the next 12 months.
Counter13 separate sell transactions with no buys is a broad-based selling pattern across insiders, which is harder to dismiss as routine diversification than a single large sale.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SI-BONE has posted a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and holds a strong Piotroski score, but quality sits below the engine's floor on a failed Rule of 40 test, the V9 panel hard-blocks on a death cross, and both short interest and insider selling point to bearish positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 10 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $506,174 (0.065% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.10
Upside
+24.3%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 3.4, Technical at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Rule Of 40 Fail
Trip ifRule of 40 score stays below 20 for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P2Death Cross Hard Block
Trip ifPrice stays below the shorter-term moving average that triggered the death cross for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Justified
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float, or implied volatility exceeds 90%.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 150,000 shares in a rolling 90-day window, more than 4x the current pace.