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SIShoulder Innovations, Inc.Sell4.7·$22.06-0.18%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Shoulder Innovations combines an expensive valuation, weak quality (0/9 Piotroski), an already-reached analyst target with negative asymmetry, and a recent earnings-miss pattern that together keep it below the investment floor, even as a bullish technical breakout with strong momentum (7.7/10) offers a counter-signal.

Thesis pillars

  • Expensive ValuationDeteriorating
  • Weak Piotroski Quality ConcernsStable
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Unknown · Unknown

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.06: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 0.0/10 and A.R:R 0.1:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)

$22.06+1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10Peer score 5.0/10 · 13 Unknown
QualityF-score0 / 9FCF yield
Stop $20.52Target $22.31(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$26.25+19.0%4 analysts
$22.31our TP
$22.06price
$26.25mean
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.06: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 0.0/10 and A.R:R 0.1:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (1.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14.0
Mkt Cap$459M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn
ROE
Rev Growth
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F0/9

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-29Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Company entered a new Loan and Security Agreement with Stifel Bank for a $15.0 million term loan and a $30.0 million revolving facility; term loan proceeds were used to fully repay and terminate the prior Trinity Capital Loan Agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Volatile — 7.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (20%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Piotroski F
0.0
Moat
5.0
Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9Quality concerns
Low model confidence on this dimension (29%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.92%=EXTREMEMomentum 6.8>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.65Resistance $24.59

Price Targets

$21
$22
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.06: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 0.0/10 and A.R:R 0.1:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $20.52. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.31 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $20.52. Stop-loss: $20.52.

What are the risks of investing in SI?

Target reached (1.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%).

Is SI overvalued or undervalued?

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SI?

12 analysts cover SI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $26.

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