Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.50
- ▸Attractively valued
SFST · Why this verdict
Why Southern First Bancshares (SFST) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Southern First Bancshares combines a strong earnings beat streak with cheap valuation and 26% growth, but the stock has already reached its analyst target near 52-week highs, limiting further modeled upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 12.65%. Bull case | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank earnings can be volatile quarter to quarter due to credit provisioning, so a beat streak can break abruptly on a single reserve build. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.12, levels the engine flags as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months if growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks often trade at persistently low multiples due to rate-cycle and credit-risk perceptions, so a cheap valuation alone may not close. | ||
Revenue is growing 26% year-over-year, a pace the engine flags as a strong growth profile. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months to sustain the growth thesis. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth this strong for a regional bank is often tied to a specific loan-growth cycle that can decelerate sharply once comparisons normalize. | ||
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -7.6% downside, and sits just 4.0% below its 52-week high. Bear case | The downside-to-target gap should narrow or turn positive only if analyst targets are raised. | →Stable |
| CounterBank analyst targets get revised frequently with rate expectations, so a stretched target today doesn't preclude upside if net interest margin estimates improve. | ||
Momentum remains constructive with price trading above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Price should continue to hold above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the stock already near its 52-week high and the target reached, momentum could stall or reverse without a fresh earnings catalyst. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 12.65%.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterRegional bank earnings can be volatile quarter to quarter due to credit provisioning, so a beat streak can break abruptly on a single reserve build.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.12, levels the engine flags as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months if growth continues.
CounterRegional banks often trade at persistently low multiples due to rate-cycle and credit-risk perceptions, so a cheap valuation alone may not close.
Revenue is growing 26% year-over-year, a pace the engine flags as a strong growth profile.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months to sustain the growth thesis.
CounterGrowth this strong for a regional bank is often tied to a specific loan-growth cycle that can decelerate sharply once comparisons normalize.
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -7.6% downside, and sits just 4.0% below its 52-week high.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The downside-to-target gap should narrow or turn positive only if analyst targets are raised.
CounterBank analyst targets get revised frequently with rate expectations, so a stretched target today doesn't preclude upside if net interest margin estimates improve.
Momentum remains constructive with price trading above its 200-day moving average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should continue to hold above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterWith the stock already near its 52-week high and the target reached, momentum could stall or reverse without a fresh earnings catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.3 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,261,822 (0.392% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.39%=HEAVY
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.83
Upside
-4.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 9.0; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Peer rank at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company beats earnings less than 2 out of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Cheap Peg Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 or forward P/E exceeds 15x without a matching share price increase.
- P3Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifStock price falls more than 8% from current levels while the analyst target stays flat, or the price rises more than 5% above the current 52-week high.
- P5Above 200ma Momentum
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive quarters.