Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
SEPN · Why this verdict
Why Septerna (SEPN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 33%, FCF yield 1.7%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 12044 (elite)
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 9.3 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $623,682 (0.044% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 10.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
- ▸Above max pain $21
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.77
Upside
+26.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.1, Sentiment at 7.0, and Value at 5.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Catalyst at 3.2, and Insider at 3.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.