Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.7x
- ▸PEG: 2.14
RTX · Why this verdict
Why RTX (RTX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RTX Corporation has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging 13.1% above estimates with strong price momentum in a breakout pattern, but below-average business quality scores and single-source foreign supplier concentration risk constrain the risk/reward for new buyers at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RTX beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 13.1%, including a 21% beat in the October 2025 quarter, demonstrating consistent ability to manage costs and exceed analyst expectations in the defense and aerospace cycle. Earnings | Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the beat track record with average surprises above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterAerospace and defense earnings beats often reflect favorable contract timing and favorable mix in a given period; as the comparison base rises from these outperformance periods, sustaining positive surprises becomes statistically harder. | ||
Analysts maintain a constructive rating with a sentiment score of 6.7 and a price target of $194 representing 5.7% upside from current prices, reflecting broad coverage support for the defense spending cycle tailwind. Sentiment | Analyst consensus price target rises above $200 within 12 months, reflecting estimate increases tied to continued earnings outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterDefense sector analyst estimates are sensitive to government budget decisions, and any reduction in defense appropriations or program delays could cause simultaneous target price reductions across the analyst community. | ||
The stock shows a breakout pattern with a golden cross in moving averages, rising on-balance volume indicating institutional accumulation, and a momentum score of 7.7, suggesting the current uptrend has broad market participation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score remains above 6.0 and on-balance volume trend stays positive over the next 12 months, confirming sustained price strength. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock has limited upside of only 5.7% to the analyst target from current prices, meaning momentum continuation requires analysts to raise targets, which depends on continued earnings outperformance beyond the current cycle. | ||
Reliance on single-source foreign suppliers is identified as a high concentration risk, creating supply chain vulnerability in a geopolitically sensitive industry where disruption of component supply could delay program deliveries and impair revenue recognition. Bear case | No material supply disruption event materializes over the next 12 months, allowing revenue recognition from key defense programs to proceed on schedule. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSingle-source foreign supplier dependency in defense manufacturing is a systemic risk that cannot be fully mitigated in the near term; tariff changes, export restrictions, or geopolitical events could create unplanned program delays. | ||
RTX beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 13.1%, including a 21% beat in the October 2025 quarter, demonstrating consistent ability to manage costs and exceed analyst expectations in the defense and aerospace cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the beat track record with average surprises above 5%.
CounterAerospace and defense earnings beats often reflect favorable contract timing and favorable mix in a given period; as the comparison base rises from these outperformance periods, sustaining positive surprises becomes statistically harder.
Analysts maintain a constructive rating with a sentiment score of 6.7 and a price target of $194 representing 5.7% upside from current prices, reflecting broad coverage support for the defense spending cycle tailwind.
→StableSentiment
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $200 within 12 months, reflecting estimate increases tied to continued earnings outperformance.
CounterDefense sector analyst estimates are sensitive to government budget decisions, and any reduction in defense appropriations or program delays could cause simultaneous target price reductions across the analyst community.
The stock shows a breakout pattern with a golden cross in moving averages, rising on-balance volume indicating institutional accumulation, and a momentum score of 7.7, suggesting the current uptrend has broad market participation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score remains above 6.0 and on-balance volume trend stays positive over the next 12 months, confirming sustained price strength.
CounterThe stock has limited upside of only 5.7% to the analyst target from current prices, meaning momentum continuation requires analysts to raise targets, which depends on continued earnings outperformance beyond the current cycle.
Reliance on single-source foreign suppliers is identified as a high concentration risk, creating supply chain vulnerability in a geopolitically sensitive industry where disruption of component supply could delay program deliveries and impair revenue recognition.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- No material supply disruption event materializes over the next 12 months, allowing revenue recognition from key defense programs to proceed on schedule.
CounterSingle-source foreign supplier dependency in defense manufacturing is a systemic risk that cannot be fully mitigated in the near term; tariff changes, export restrictions, or geopolitical events could create unplanned program delays.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
Momentum
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $3,057,563 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+3.4%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Insider at 4.3, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the 4-quarter beat streak has ended.
- P2Strong Momentum Breakout Pattern
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 5.0, more than 2.7 points below the current 7.7, indicating the breakout pattern has reversed.
- P3Analyst Constructive Sentiment
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $175, more than 4% below the current $183.64 stock price, indicating downward estimate revisions.
- P4Single Source Foreign Supplier Risk
Trip ifA supply chain disruption delays at least 1 major defense program by more than 6 months, causing revenue recognition to fall below $20 billion in any quarter.