Value
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
RRBI · Why this verdict
Why Red River Bancshares (RRBI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Red River Bancshares is in a golden cross above all major moving averages with bullish MACD and an RSI of 60, a breakout setup on the technical read. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its moving averages and continue trending higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high (4.1% away), leaving limited room to extend the breakout before hitting resistance. | ||
Red River has beaten consensus EPS in all four of its last four quarters, averaging a 7% surprise, with an earnings catalyst flagged in 26 days built on that streak. Earnings | The company should beat consensus again in its upcoming report on 2026-07-30. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for the next print, and any deviation could trigger an outsized negative reaction given the stock's proximity to its 52-week high. | ||
Insiders net-bought $110,243 of stock over the past 90 days, producing a bullish insider signal even though the amount is small relative to market cap. Insider breakdown | Insider buying activity should continue or at least not reverse into net selling over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAt only 0.018% of market cap, this buying is too small to be a strong conviction signal and could reflect routine compensation-related purchases. | ||
The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.34, with the analyst target already reached and only -10.8% implied upside versus 8.1% downside, explaining the hold-don't-add stance. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, either through a pullback in price or an upward revision to the analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets for regional banks often lag a strong earnings beat streak and could be revised upward quickly, making the current negative asymmetry temporary. | ||
Red River Bancshares is in a golden cross above all major moving averages with bullish MACD and an RSI of 60, a breakout setup on the technical read.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages and continue trending higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high (4.1% away), leaving limited room to extend the breakout before hitting resistance.
Red River has beaten consensus EPS in all four of its last four quarters, averaging a 7% surprise, with an earnings catalyst flagged in 26 days built on that streak.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat consensus again in its upcoming report on 2026-07-30.
CounterA perfect beat streak raises the bar for the next print, and any deviation could trigger an outsized negative reaction given the stock's proximity to its 52-week high.
Insiders net-bought $110,243 of stock over the past 90 days, producing a bullish insider signal even though the amount is small relative to market cap.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying activity should continue or at least not reverse into net selling over the next two quarters.
CounterAt only 0.018% of market cap, this buying is too small to be a strong conviction signal and could reflect routine compensation-related purchases.
The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.34, with the analyst target already reached and only -10.8% implied upside versus 8.1% downside, explaining the hold-don't-add stance.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, either through a pullback in price or an upward revision to the analyst target.
CounterAnalyst price targets for regional banks often lag a strong earnings beat streak and could be revised upward quickly, making the current negative asymmetry temporary.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Red River Bancshares combines a golden-cross breakout, a perfect earnings beat streak, and modest insider buying, but with the analyst target already reached and a negative risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio, the setup favors holding the existing position rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $110,243 (0.017% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.31
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.6; weakest: Peer rank at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.6, Value at 8.3, and Insider at 7.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.6, Technical at 4.7, and Growth at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice fails to close above its 50-day moving average within 2 quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Into Catalyst
Trip ifRed River's EPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter on 2026-07-30.
- P3Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifNet insider transactions fall below $0 (net selling) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Limits Add
Trip ifThe risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio stays below -1 for 2 consecutive quarters.