Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
RPC · Why this verdict
Why Ridgepost Capital (RPC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RPC trades at a forward P/E of 6.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, and its risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio of 5.88 implies over 46% upside against roughly 8% downside. Valuation breakdown | The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio should stay elevated above 2 and price should close toward the analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG this low can signal the market doubts the sustainability of RPC's growth rate rather than mispricing it. | ||
RPC has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise near 8%, supporting the case for continued execution. Earnings | The beat rate should stay at or above 3 of 4 quarters through the next print on 2026-08-06. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter came in only in-line, suggesting the beat streak may already be decelerating. | ||
RPC trades below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down 6.2% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend paired with a hard-block death cross. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should turn positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend combined with a hard-block momentum reading can persist well beyond a single year, especially for a small-cap name. | ||
RPC carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.0 that is penalized directly in the scoring, adding balance-sheet risk on top of the existing momentum weakness. Bear case | The debt-to-equity ratio should decline from 1.0 over the next year as the balance sheet delevers. | →Stable |
| CounterA D/E of 1.0 is not unusually high for an asset manager and may not meaningfully constrain the business even if it persists. | ||
RPC trades at a forward P/E of 6.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, and its risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio of 5.88 implies over 46% upside against roughly 8% downside.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio should stay elevated above 2 and price should close toward the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG this low can signal the market doubts the sustainability of RPC's growth rate rather than mispricing it.
RPC has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise near 8%, supporting the case for continued execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should stay at or above 3 of 4 quarters through the next print on 2026-08-06.
CounterThe most recent quarter came in only in-line, suggesting the beat streak may already be decelerating.
RPC trades below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down 6.2% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend paired with a hard-block death cross.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should turn positive within 12 months.
CounterA confirmed downtrend combined with a hard-block momentum reading can persist well beyond a single year, especially for a small-cap name.
RPC carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.0 that is penalized directly in the scoring, adding balance-sheet risk on top of the existing momentum weakness.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The debt-to-equity ratio should decline from 1.0 over the next year as the balance sheet delevers.
CounterA D/E of 1.0 is not unusually high for an asset manager and may not meaningfully constrain the business even if it persists.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RPC offers a statistically cheap valuation and a strong earnings track record, and the risk-adjusted math points to significant upside, but a confirmed price downtrend and elevated leverage keep the setup a hold rather than an add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 146% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 82%
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.53
Upside
+54.4%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 6.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.6, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Insider at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With High Asymmetry
Trip ifThe risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio falls below 2, or the stock trades more than 10% below the current price of $7.83.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Support
Trip ifRPC misses consensus EPS by more than 0% (a miss) in the next reported quarter.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice fails to close above the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters.
- P4Leverage Risk Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 1.3.