Value
5.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.6x
RMIX · Why this verdict
Why Suncrete (RMIX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Suncrete is a hyper-growth building-materials name (146% YoY revenue growth) trading 65% off its high, but it is not yet profitable, has no moat and is in a deep sell-off, so the 118% distance to the analyst target is a speculative recovery bet.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $19.57 analyst target sits 118% above the $8.98 price, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 8.6 against a 13.8% downside to support. Estimated upside | The price re-rates toward the analyst target as earnings turn positive. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (6 analysts) and targets on a speculative, unprofitable name tend to be stale or optimistic. | ||
Institutions are accumulating shares even as the price falls, with the holder-change component at 10/10 and no net insider activity. Insider breakdown | Institutional ownership keeps rising over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional buying during a 65% drawdown may be bottom-fishing that stops if earnings do not turn positive. | ||
Revenue is growing about 146% YoY, making Suncrete the industry growth leader with a growth score of 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue keeps compounding at triple-digit or high double-digit rates, in line with the next-quarter revenue estimate of about $147M. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of this size is likely acquisition-driven or off a tiny base, and data sources are mixed (provisional yfinance quarters), so organic growth may be far lower. | ||
The business is not yet profitable: ROE, ROA and net margin all score 0, the company has no competitive moat, and quality is 2.1/10. Quality breakdown | Quarterly EPS moves from -$0.01 to positive as growth scales, lifting the quality score over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA building-materials producer with no moat and thin gross margin may never earn attractive returns, so growth could add revenue without adding profit. | ||
The shares are in a steep sell-off (RSI 8, falling on-balance volume, 65% drawdown) even though the 200-day average is still rising 0.3% per 30 days, which reads as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | The price stabilizes above support near $8.47 and momentum recovers from 2.5/10 over the coming quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling volume-based accumulation signals and a 65% drawdown can mean informed holders are still distributing, and capitulation can continue. | ||
The $19.57 analyst target sits 118% above the $8.98 price, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 8.6 against a 13.8% downside to support.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The price re-rates toward the analyst target as earnings turn positive.
CounterCoverage is light (6 analysts) and targets on a speculative, unprofitable name tend to be stale or optimistic.
Institutions are accumulating shares even as the price falls, with the holder-change component at 10/10 and no net insider activity.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional ownership keeps rising over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutional buying during a 65% drawdown may be bottom-fishing that stops if earnings do not turn positive.
Revenue is growing about 146% YoY, making Suncrete the industry growth leader with a growth score of 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps compounding at triple-digit or high double-digit rates, in line with the next-quarter revenue estimate of about $147M.
CounterGrowth of this size is likely acquisition-driven or off a tiny base, and data sources are mixed (provisional yfinance quarters), so organic growth may be far lower.
The business is not yet profitable: ROE, ROA and net margin all score 0, the company has no competitive moat, and quality is 2.1/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS moves from -$0.01 to positive as growth scales, lifting the quality score over 12 months.
CounterA building-materials producer with no moat and thin gross margin may never earn attractive returns, so growth could add revenue without adding profit.
The shares are in a steep sell-off (RSI 8, falling on-balance volume, 65% drawdown) even though the 200-day average is still rising 0.3% per 30 days, which reads as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price stabilizes above support near $8.47 and momentum recovers from 2.5/10 over the coming quarters.
CounterFalling volume-based accumulation signals and a 65% drawdown can mean informed holders are still distributing, and capitulation can continue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 146% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 122%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
6.72
Upside
+93.1%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -60% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 6.72.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Peer rank at 4.0, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hyper Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY from the current 146%.
- P2Unprofitable No Moat
Trip ifQuarterly EPS stays below $0.00 for 4 consecutive quarters from the current -$0.01.
- P3Capitulation Selloff Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.47 support level from the current $8.98.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target falls below $13 from the current $19.57.
- P5Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifThe institutional holder-change component falls below 5.0 from the current 10.0.