Value
5.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
RHLD · Why this verdict
Why Resolute Holdings Management (RHLD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Resolute Holdings is a depressed small-cap services business, 49% below its high, with excellent cash conversion and an industry-leading growth rank, but customer concentration, a falling 200-day average and almost no upside to resistance limit conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Resolute converts 196% of net income into free cash flow and has a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 120% of net income and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROE and net margin are weak (ROE score 0.8, net margin score 2.1), so high cash conversion rests on small profits. | ||
Revenue is concentrated in two customers, GPGI Holdings and Husky Holdings, flagged as a high concentration risk. Bear case | The relationships with both customers continue without worse terms over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLoss or repricing of either customer, which appear to be related parties, would hit revenue immediately because there is no diversified base. | ||
The price is below a 200-day average sloping down 7.8% per 30 days, although on-balance volume is rising and MACD is improving after a 49% drawdown. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and the slope of that average flattens within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend with a death cross usually reflects real fundamental concerns, and rising volume in a bear rally can fade quickly. | ||
Take-profit sits at $125.41 from a $119.52 price, only 4.9% upside against 7.0% downside to the $111.15 stop, with no analyst target available. Upside pct | Price breaks above $125.41 resistance on rising volume and establishes a higher range. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith risk exceeding reward and no analyst coverage, the setup offers little compensation for the speculative profile. | ||
An insider bought $44,190 of stock over 90 days with no sales, institutions are accumulating, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader. Insider breakdown | Insider purchases continue and institutional ownership keeps rising. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is only 0.005% of market cap, so it is too small to show real conviction. | ||
Resolute converts 196% of net income into free cash flow and has a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 120% of net income and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterROE and net margin are weak (ROE score 0.8, net margin score 2.1), so high cash conversion rests on small profits.
Revenue is concentrated in two customers, GPGI Holdings and Husky Holdings, flagged as a high concentration risk.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The relationships with both customers continue without worse terms over the next 12 months.
CounterLoss or repricing of either customer, which appear to be related parties, would hit revenue immediately because there is no diversified base.
The price is below a 200-day average sloping down 7.8% per 30 days, although on-balance volume is rising and MACD is improving after a 49% drawdown.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and the slope of that average flattens within 12 months.
CounterA confirmed downtrend with a death cross usually reflects real fundamental concerns, and rising volume in a bear rally can fade quickly.
Take-profit sits at $125.41 from a $119.52 price, only 4.9% upside against 7.0% downside to the $111.15 stop, with no analyst target available.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price breaks above $125.41 resistance on rising volume and establishes a higher range.
CounterWith risk exceeding reward and no analyst coverage, the setup offers little compensation for the speculative profile.
An insider bought $44,190 of stock over 90 days with no sales, institutions are accumulating, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider purchases continue and institutional ownership keeps rising.
CounterThe purchase is only 0.005% of market cap, so it is too small to show real conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.8 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 5.0 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 196% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $44,190 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Peer rank at 6.2, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Catalyst at 5.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100%.
- P2Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifEither of the two largest customers accounts for less than 50% of its prior revenue contribution, a drop of more than 50%.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend With Recovery Signs
Trip ifPrice falls below the $111.15 stop level.
- P4Limited Upside To Resistance
Trip ifPrice rises above $125.41 resistance but volume stays below its 50-day average.
- P5Insider Buying And Growth Rank
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $500K over 90 days with 0 insider purchases.