Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.56
RHI · Why this verdict
Why Robert Half (RHI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Robert Half faces severe pressure from 29% short interest, a put/call ratio of 4.40, declining revenue at -4%, and the stock trading 18.9% above analyst consensus targets, making the current risk profile unattractive despite consistent earnings beats.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline. Earnings | Earnings results meet or exceed estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters despite the difficult revenue environment. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMeeting or beating already-lowered earnings estimates during a revenue decline does not establish a positive fundamental trend, and the stock trading at 18.9% above consensus targets limits the reward for continued beats. | ||
The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle. Catalyst breakdown | The company maintains its dividend without a cut for at least the next 4 quarters as free cash flow supports the payment. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings is a clear warning sign that the dividend cannot be sustained at current earnings levels, and a dividend cut would likely accelerate selling pressure. | ||
The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio declines below 2.0 and short interest falls below 20% only if staffing market conditions improve materially. | ↑Improving |
| CounterExtremely high put/call ratios sometimes reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than directional short positioning, and high implied volatility may be optically elevated ahead of a known earnings event. | ||
Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to positive territory, above 2%, within the next 4 quarters as the staffing market recovers. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterProfessional staffing tends to lag economic recovery by 6 to 12 months, and the -4% decline rate may worsen before it recovers if corporate clients continue to defer hiring decisions. | ||
Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings results meet or exceed estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters despite the difficult revenue environment.
CounterMeeting or beating already-lowered earnings estimates during a revenue decline does not establish a positive fundamental trend, and the stock trading at 18.9% above consensus targets limits the reward for continued beats.
The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains its dividend without a cut for at least the next 4 quarters as free cash flow supports the payment.
CounterA dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings is a clear warning sign that the dividend cannot be sustained at current earnings levels, and a dividend cut would likely accelerate selling pressure.
The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 2.0 and short interest falls below 20% only if staffing market conditions improve materially.
CounterExtremely high put/call ratios sometimes reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than directional short positioning, and high implied volatility may be optically elevated ahead of a known earnings event.
Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive territory, above 2%, within the next 4 quarters as the staffing market recovers.
CounterProfessional staffing tends to lag economic recovery by 6 to 12 months, and the -4% decline rate may worsen before it recovers if corporate clients continue to defer hiring decisions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 24%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 5.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.31
Upside
-19.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.31 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 6.5, Catalyst at 6.5, and Momentum at 5.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.5, Growth at 3.7, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 5.0 or short interest rises above 35% of float.
- P2Revenue Decline Staffing Cycle
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below -5% year-over-year for more than 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat In Downturn
Trip ifEarnings per share falls below $0.10 in any reported quarter or a miss exceeds -15%.
- P4Dividend Yield Support
Trip ifCompany announces a dividend cut of more than 20% from the current rate.