Value
6.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
REPL · Why this verdict
Why Replimune Group (REPL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Replimune is a pre-revenue, cash-burning oncology biotech with 48% analyst upside and $32M of insider buying, but weak quality, 34% short interest and dependence on a single platform and a partner-supplied drug make it a binary bet.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business depends on a single RPx pipeline platform and on BMS nivolumab supply, both flagged as high concentration risks. Bear case | Pipeline progress continues and the nivolumab supply arrangement remains intact over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA setback in the lead platform or a supply disruption would affect essentially the whole pipeline because there are no diversified products. | ||
Insiders bought $33.0M and sold $1.0M over 90 days, a net $32.0M or 2.960% of market cap bought, and institutions are accumulating. Insider breakdown | Insider ownership holds or rises with net buying staying positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider purchases do not de-risk a binary clinical or regulatory outcome, and 5 sales were also recorded in the period. | ||
The $16.96 analyst target implies 48.0% upside from $11.46, with reward-to-risk of 3.98 against 12.1% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target if clinical or regulatory milestones are met. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe target is haircut by 13% and a negative regulatory or trial update could erase the upside quickly given the stock's 115% implied volatility. | ||
Replimune is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, no reported revenue, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and quality at 1.5, below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Quarterly losses per share narrow from the current $0.72 as development spending is controlled. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout revenue the company depends on external financing and further dilution, and loss per share has stayed between $0.72 and $0.90 for four quarters. | ||
Short interest is 34% of float while on-balance volume is rising, with price above its 200-day average after an uptrend pullback with RSI at 35. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 25% as price holds above the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 34% short position indicates informed skepticism, and the earnings report in 4 days could trigger a sharp move either way. | ||
The business depends on a single RPx pipeline platform and on BMS nivolumab supply, both flagged as high concentration risks.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Pipeline progress continues and the nivolumab supply arrangement remains intact over 12 months.
CounterA setback in the lead platform or a supply disruption would affect essentially the whole pipeline because there are no diversified products.
Insiders bought $33.0M and sold $1.0M over 90 days, a net $32.0M or 2.960% of market cap bought, and institutions are accumulating.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider ownership holds or rises with net buying staying positive over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider purchases do not de-risk a binary clinical or regulatory outcome, and 5 sales were also recorded in the period.
The $16.96 analyst target implies 48.0% upside from $11.46, with reward-to-risk of 3.98 against 12.1% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target if clinical or regulatory milestones are met.
CounterThe target is haircut by 13% and a negative regulatory or trial update could erase the upside quickly given the stock's 115% implied volatility.
Replimune is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, no reported revenue, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and quality at 1.5, below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly losses per share narrow from the current $0.72 as development spending is controlled.
CounterWithout revenue the company depends on external financing and further dilution, and loss per share has stayed between $0.72 and $0.90 for four quarters.
Short interest is 34% of float while on-balance volume is rising, with price above its 200-day average after an uptrend pullback with RSI at 35.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 25% as price holds above the 200-day average.
CounterA 34% short position indicates informed skepticism, and the earnings report in 4 days could trigger a sharp move either way.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.3x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.7 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $31,961,623 (2.112% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.1 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 34%
- ▸High IV: 115%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 7.9 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:9.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.38
Upside
+5.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Momentum at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.38.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 9.0, Insider at 7.4, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Peer rank at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $5M over 90 days with 0 insider purchases.
- P2Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $13, cutting upside to less than 15%.
- P3Cash Burn No Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below -$1.00 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Platform And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifLoss of supply or pipeline setback cuts price to below $8, more than 30% under the current $11.46.
- P5High Short Interest With Volume Accumulation
Trip ifShort interest rises above 45% of float.