Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.39
REGN · Why this verdict
Why Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x with 22% analyst upside, and maintains strong net margins of 30% — but faces declining earnings estimates, weak revenue growth, and near-term technical weakness from a death cross, creating a fundamentally sound but momentum-challenged setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Regeneron has net margins of 30% — strong for the pharmaceutical sector — a current ratio of 9.4 indicating excellent liquidity, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting solid financial health and an established drug portfolio generating consistent cash flows. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the commercial drug portfolio continues generating strong profitability. | →Stable |
| CounterA free cash flow quality score of only 5.6 — flagged as a warning at 74% conversion — suggests that despite strong net margins, capital allocation decisions are consuming meaningful cash before it reaches shareholders. | ||
Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, including a 52.7% beat earlier in the year — indicating the company's drug portfolio is generating revenues and cash flows consistently above what analyst consensus models anticipated. Earnings | Regeneron continues to beat earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward — a bear case item specifically called out in the data — meaning future quarters must beat a declining bar, and the magnitude of beats may compress even if the streak continues. | ||
Regeneron trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and an EV/EBITDA that scores modestly, with a PEG of 1.07 — and ranks attractively on both absolute valuation and relative to peers on value metrics, with a value score of 7.3 out of 10 and analyst consensus implying 22% upside to $749.98. Valuation breakdown | Analyst consensus price target holds above $700 over the next 12 months as pipeline execution maintains current revenue run rates. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak growth with a revenue growth score of 7.3 and earnings growth score of only 0.6 mean the PEG may not be representative — if earnings are near-flat, a PEG of 1.07 is based on minimal growth, and the forward multiple is only attractive if earnings do not decline further. | ||
Despite strong absolute results, Regeneron faces downward earnings estimate revisions and a death cross technical pattern — both of which suggest near-term price headwinds even as the underlying business remains fundamentally sound, and together they explain why the stock is recovering from below its 200-day moving average. Bear case | Earnings estimate revisions turn neutral or positive within 12 months and the stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average, resolving both technical and fundamental headwinds simultaneously. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith an asymmetry ratio of 4.25 and 22% upside to the analyst target, the death cross is forming against a backdrop of strong absolute valuation support — meaning even if earnings estimates compress further, the stock may find buyers at current multiples who view the technical weakness as an entry opportunity. | ||
Regeneron has net margins of 30% — strong for the pharmaceutical sector — a current ratio of 9.4 indicating excellent liquidity, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting solid financial health and an established drug portfolio generating consistent cash flows.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the commercial drug portfolio continues generating strong profitability.
CounterA free cash flow quality score of only 5.6 — flagged as a warning at 74% conversion — suggests that despite strong net margins, capital allocation decisions are consuming meaningful cash before it reaches shareholders.
Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, including a 52.7% beat earlier in the year — indicating the company's drug portfolio is generating revenues and cash flows consistently above what analyst consensus models anticipated.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Regeneron continues to beat earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10%.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward — a bear case item specifically called out in the data — meaning future quarters must beat a declining bar, and the magnitude of beats may compress even if the streak continues.
Regeneron trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and an EV/EBITDA that scores modestly, with a PEG of 1.07 — and ranks attractively on both absolute valuation and relative to peers on value metrics, with a value score of 7.3 out of 10 and analyst consensus implying 22% upside to $749.98.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target holds above $700 over the next 12 months as pipeline execution maintains current revenue run rates.
CounterWeak growth with a revenue growth score of 7.3 and earnings growth score of only 0.6 mean the PEG may not be representative — if earnings are near-flat, a PEG of 1.07 is based on minimal growth, and the forward multiple is only attractive if earnings do not decline further.
Despite strong absolute results, Regeneron faces downward earnings estimate revisions and a death cross technical pattern — both of which suggest near-term price headwinds even as the underlying business remains fundamentally sound, and together they explain why the stock is recovering from below its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings estimate revisions turn neutral or positive within 12 months and the stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average, resolving both technical and fundamental headwinds simultaneously.
CounterWith an asymmetry ratio of 4.25 and 22% upside to the analyst target, the death cross is forming against a backdrop of strong absolute valuation support — meaning even if earnings estimates compress further, the stock may find buyers at current multiples who view the technical weakness as an entry opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 71% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 1.1 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $6,506,834 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.42
Upside
-5.3%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.4, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.9, Technical at 4.0, and Insider at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.42 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Quality
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that even the declining earnings estimate bar is being missed.
- P2Attractive Valuation Versus Peers
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $650, indicating forward valuation confidence has eroded by more than 13% from the current $749.98 target.
- P3Strong Margins And Financial Health
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% in any single quarter, indicating meaningful pressure on the commercial drug portfolio profitability.
- P4Declining Estimates And Death Cross
Trip ifEarnings per share estimates for the next fiscal year are revised downward by more than 15% from current consensus, confirming the declining estimate trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing.